Gross tax revenues are projected to surge by 17.9% to Rs 7.47 trillion, powered by 36.1% spike in customs revenues to Rs 1.15 trillion and 29.4% rise in Union excise duties to Rs 1.32 trillion. Corporation tax will increase by 18.1% to Rs 3.01 trillion crore while service tax revenues will increase by 17.2% to Rs 0.68 trillion.
Interestingly, while gross tax revenues are estimated to grow by only 17.9%, the state's share of the same is set to increase at a faster pace by 26.8% to Rs 2.09 trillion. The indicative ceiling on total transfers from Centre to States on the revenue account has been recommended by the 13th Finance Commission to be increased from 38% to 39.5%. The additional devolution of 1.5% to state would result in about Rs 98000 crore from Centre to State. Even excluding this, the share of states is higher by 21%!
Non tax revenues are estimated to jump by 32% to Rs 1.48 trillion, powered by doubling of (102.4% increase) in other non tax revenues to Rs 0.75 trillion, primarily factoring in Rs 35000 crore of 3G auction revenues. The RBI would also transfer higher surplus to the government, which had paid Rs 25000 crore in FY 2010
Interestingly, dividend and profits, which grew by impressive 35% to Rs 0.50 trillion (as per revised estimates of FY 2009-10 from actual of FY 2008-09) are infact estimated to ease by 1.3% to Rs 0.51 trillion in FY 2010-11. The fall in government's stake post divestments made in FY 2009-10 and to be made in FY 2010-11 have apparently been factored in the estimated fall in dividend and profits from PSUs. Overall, the revenue receipts are estimated to increase by 18.2% to Rs 6.82 trillion.
Capital receipts flared up by 55% to Rs 4.50 trillion in FY 2009-10 (BE, vs FY 2008-09 actuals), but they are expected to ease by 5.2% to Rs 4.27 trillion in FY 2010-11. This is primarily due to moderation in the net market loans by 13% to Rs 3.45 trillion for FY 2010-11 from Rs 3.98 trillion in FY 2009-010 (RE). Interestingly external assistance (Net) is set to surge by 36% to Rs 22464 crore in FY 2010-11 (BE), over and above 50% spike to Rs 16535 crore ion FY 2009-10 (RE)!
Thanks to Rs 40000 crore from divestment of stake in select PSUs and another Rs 35000 crore from 3G auctions, the share of market borrowings in the total fiscal deficit is set to come down from 96.2% in FY 2009-10 (RE) to 90.5% in FY 2010-11 (BE)!
| Rupee Comes From (%) |
| Item (%) | 2007-08 (RE) | 2008-09 (RE) | 2009-10 (BE) | 2010-11 (BE) |
| Borrowings & Other Liabilities | 19 | 14 | 34 | 29 |
| Corporation Tax | 21 | 24 | 22 | 23 |
| Non Tax Revenue | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Excise | 17 | 15 | 9 | 10 |
| Income Tax | 13 | 15 | 9 | 9 |
| Customs | 12 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
| Service Tax & Other Taxes | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Non-debt Capital Receipts | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Rupee Goes To (%) |
| Central Plan | 20 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| Interest payment | 20 | 21 | 19 | 19 |
| States' Share of Taxes & Duties | 18 | 19 | 14 | 16 |
| Other Non-plan Expenditure | 11 | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| Defence | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Subsidies | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| State & UT Plan Assistance | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Non-Plan Assistance to State & UT Govts | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
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