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FX Daily
Feb 26 2007 12:07PM
26th Feb 2007 Daily Short term strategies

Major Currencies: Daily Short term strategies
Majors
Currency
S2
S1
Spot
R1
R2
EURUSD
1.3057
1.3120
1.3165
1.3194
1.3253
USDJPY
120.26
120.72
121.06
121.31
121.76
GBPUSD
1.9520
1.9580
1.9631
1.9680
1.9750
USDCHF
1.2190
1.2252
1.2322
1.2377
1.2451
EURJPY
157.90
158.57
159.42
159.82
160.08
*S1- First Support   *S2- Second Support   *R1- First Resistance   *R2- Second Resistance
 
Strategy
EUR/USD:1.3165/68: Today we may use the spike to sell only 50% of equity here under 1.3180 and if done keep a 35 pip stop for a dip towards 1.3120. However, buy the EUR in case it stays above 1.3185 for more than an hour!
 
GBP/USD:1.9630/33: Today we may sell 40% of equity close to the 1.9630-50 range and if done, keep a 50 pip stop for 100 pip dip.
 
USD/CHF:1.2323/28: We could try longs for 40% of equity here with a 50 pip stop for a 100 pip upmove.
 
USD/JPY: 120.08/10: The Dollar could be bought here for 100% of equity, with a 50 pip stop for a 100 pip upmove.
 
EUR/JPY:159.37/41: One can try shorts for 50% of equity here close to 159.40, with a 40 pip stop, for a 100 pip dip.
 
Snapshot of other currencies:
Currency Sup2 Sup1 Spot Res1 Res2 Comments


USD/CAD


1.1463


1.1513


1.1595


1.1630


1.1681

Buy the USD here at 1.1580-95 range, with a 50 pip stop, for a 80-90 pip upmove.


AUD/USD


0.7800


0.7853


0.7915


0.7970


0.8021

Sell close to .7910-20, with a 40 pip stop for a 70-80 pip dip.

NZD/USD


0.6998


0.7023


0.7065


0.7095


0.7120

We may sell 25% of equity here, with a 40 pip stop for a 70-80 pip dip.

EUR/GBP

0.6663

0.6686

0.6705

0.6725

0.6743
We may chance 40% of equity here, at .6700-05, with a 30 pip stop for a 70 pip upmove.


EUR/CHF


1.6127


1.6198


1.6226


1.6258


1.6321

We may sell 50% of equity here under 1.6250, with a 40 pip stop for a 70-80 pip dip.


GBP/JPY


236.52


237.02


237.68


237.98


238.28

Sell for 100% equity here under 237.75-90, with a 60 pip stop for a 120-150 pip dip.

USD/SGD

1.5214

1.5269

1.5307

1.5378

1.5415
We would like to continue long here now for 100% of equity at an average of 1.5355, with a 70 pip stop.
 
Market summary:Dollar Unsettled By Geopolitical Speculation.
The dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Friday, with German economic data boosting the case for higher European interest rates and investors cutting bets on further weakness in the Japanese currency. The German Ifo business sentiment survey for February showed a larger decline than expected but did little to alter the outlook for euro zone interest rates to rise in March. The drop in business confidence from 107.9 to 107 was relatively mild and any bearishness was offset by optimism of the stronger French consumer spending numbers. The prospect of an interest rate hike in March and the potential impact of the Value Added Tax increase have given businesses reason to be slightly less optimistic about current and future conditions.
The dollar was down 0.4 percent at 121.02 yen, snapping the pair’s first five-day advance since April. Despite Friday’s gains in the yen, this week the Japanese currency dropped about 1.4 percent against the dollar. And versus the euro, the yen rounded up its worst weekly decline since September 2005. The yen has been under broad pressure for weeks as investors embrace carry trades in which they borrow the yen at low interest rates and then sell it to buy higher-yielding currencies. However, expectations the Bank of Japan will raise rates has left investors wary of selling yen too aggressively.
Elsewhere in the markets, sterling rose to one-week highs against the euro and dollar on Friday thanks to underlying strength in the fourth quarter GDP report. Even though the headline GDP number was not revised, private consumption and exports were. In fact, consumer spending was so healthy that it triggered cautious comments from Bank of England member Sentence who said that it was important for the central bank to keep demand under control, especially since inflation is coming back on-track. With oil prices creeping back up, another rate hike soon is not out of the question. Sterling was up 0.4 percent at $1.9636, having earlier climbed as high as $1.9652.
The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-month high against the U.S. greenback on Friday, getting a boost from higher oil prices. The U.S. dollar changed hands at C$1.1590, down 0.2 percent.
 
Data to be watched:
 
GMT   Monday, 26 February 2007 Expected Previous
5:00
JPY
Bank of Japan to Releas e Minutes for Jan.17-18 Meeting
7:10
EUR
Germ an GfK Cons um er Confidence Survey (MAR)
4.8
4.8
16:00
EUR
European Central Bank's Quaden presents Annual Report in Antwerp
17:30 GBP Bank of England's Blanchflower Speaks in U.K.
0:00 NZD NBNZ Bus ines s Confidence (JAN)
-7.7
 
DISCLAIMER:This report is prepared by Forexserve exclusively for Reliance Money.The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Forexserve does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any currencies. Forexserve and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any currencies mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such assets/currencies (or investment).
 
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Previous Research Reports

Mar 7 2007 10:38AM
7th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
Recovery was the main theme in the foreign exchange market today as the yen crosses saw their biggest one day rally since the unwinding began last Tuesday

Mar 6 2007 10:23AM
6th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
The dollar rebounded from a three-month low against the yen this morning as a recovery in Tokyo shares helped stem a weeklong sell-off in risky assets that was

Mar 5 2007 8:48AM
5th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
After having held steady for most of the week, the demand for Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc against the British pound was too much for the currency to handle.

Mar 2 2007 10:09AM
2nd March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
The dollar had tumbled to an 11-week low against the yen yesterday, as another wave of investors unwound carry trades

Mar 1 2007 10:19AM
1st March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
After yesterday’s wild moves, the global financial markets spent the day licking its wounds

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