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Thursday, March 08, 2007
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FX Daily
Mar 1 2007 10:19AM
1st March 2007 Daily Short term strategies

Major Currencies: Daily Short term strategies
Majors
Currency
S2
S1
Spot
R1
R2
EURUSD
1.3125
1.3194
1.3227
1.3253
1.3315
USDJPY
117.54
118.00
118.37
118.61
119.05
GBPUSD
1.9460
1.9550
1.9635
1.9675
1.9750
USDCHF
1.2062
1.2122
1.2183
1.2190
1.2252
EURJPY
155.27
155.78
156.61
157.10
157.89
*S1- First Support   *S2- Second Support   *R1- First Resistance   *R2- Second Resistance
 
Strategy
EUR/USD:1.3227/30: Yesterday we sold the EUR for 50% of equity under 1.3135, for a move to 1.3190 as planned. Today we may want to sell again under 1.3240, for 50% of equity again for a possible move to 1.3185-90. Stop over 1.3276.
 
GBP/USD:1.9635/40: We sold yesterday, below 1.9610 for 25% of equity and exited at 1.9565. Today we may want to sell again under 1.9640 for 50% of equity, with a 40 pip stop for a 80 pip dip.
 
USD/CHF:1.2182/84: Today, we would like to buy 50% of equity here at 1.2185 after having rested yesterday, for proof of a”bottom” here. Keep stop at 1.2143. T/P at 1.2240.
 
USD/JPY:118.37/38: Yesterday we bought the Dollar close to 118.30, for 25%-50% of equity, with a stop below 117.80. The target objective zone of 118.80-118.90 has been reached this morning! We may now wait for a dip close to 118.40-50 to buy again, with a 30 pip stop for a 80 pip upthrust.
 
EUR/JPY:156.61/63:The 159.40 shorts were exited at 158.00. We would today wait for any spike close to 157.40 to sell again for 50% of equity and if done keep a 60 pip stop for a +100 pip dip.

 
Snapshot of other currencies:
Currency Sup2 Sup1 Spot Res1 Res2 Comments


USD/CAD


1.1615


1.1681


1.1687


1.1751


1.1814

The longs from 1.1655 was exited at 1.1730,as planned. Now wait for any dip close to 1.1690, to buy 50% of equity for a 60 pip upmove, with a 30 pip stop.


AUD/USD


0.7800


0.7853


0.7862


0.7908


0.7970

The shorts from .7915 could be exited here at .7863- 65 and then stand aside.
NZD/USD

0.6830

0.6912

0.7002

0.7050

0.7110

Nothing was done yesterday as the spike to .7040-50, was not seen. We would still wait today for a spike under .7030 to sell for 40% of equity, with a 40 pip stop for a 70-80 pip dip.

EUR/GBP

0.6686

0.6708

0.6734

0.6743

0.6760
The longs from .6700, were exited at .6734 as planned. No trades today.


EUR/CHF


1.5977


1.6053


1.6114


1.6127


1.6198

We would like to buy 50% of equity close to 1.6100, with a 40 pip stop, if done, for a 80 pip upmove.


GBP/JPY


231.65


231.90


232.38


232.87


233.25

We would sell the GBP here under 232.75, for a 90 pip dip, with a 40 pip stop.

USD/SGD

1.5215

1.5255

1.5287

1.5345

1.5389
Nothing was done yesterday. Today we would like to buy 50% of equity here at 1.5286, with a 40 pip stop for a 80 pip upmove.
 
Market summary: Dollar Treads Water after Dousing.
After yesterday’s wild moves, the global financial markets spent the day licking its wounds. Although government officials from around the world tried to pacify the markets by suggesting that things may not be as bad as they seemed the degree of today’s recoveries indicate that traders may not be buying it. They will be reluctant to get back into the markets in force after having bailed out as quickly as they did. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed his positive outlook on economic growth and indicated that the latest move in the stock prices will not alter the Fed’s plans for monetary policy. Yet, the real concerns about the US economy still remain. Fourth quarter GDP was revised lower form 3.5 percent to 2.2 percent. The price index was revised higher from 1.5 percent to 1.7 percent, but core PCE was revised down from 2.1 to 1.9 percent. Meanwhile, the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said its business barometer slid, and US new home sales plunged 16.6 per cent in January to the lowest sales pace in four years, casting doubt that the housing sector has reached the bottom.
Meanwhile, after the sharp rally, the Yen gave back some of its monstrous gains. The breakdown triggered a new downtrend which was supported by last night’s comments of BoJ officials. Central bank Governor Fukui said last night that they need to keep raising interest rates while Mizuno noted that short term rates are “pretty accommodative” and as such, the central bank needs to push rates towards normalization. However economic data indicates that the country is struggling to recover.
Elsewhere, The British pound is stronger across the board thanks to solid housing market data. The UK’s Nationwide Building Society reported 0.7 percent rise in house prices in the month of February. The market was only looking for a 0.5 percent rise. Unfortunately consumer confidence did not improve along with it as the GfK report dropped from -7 to -8. Bank of England Deputy Governor Lomax warned today that inflation could fall sharply in the months ahead and take the rate below the central bank’s target by the end of the year.
 
Data to be watched:
 
GMT   Thursday, 1 March 2007 Expected Previous
9:00
EUR
Euro Zone Pu rchas ing Ma nag ers ' In d e x Manu fa cturin g (s urve y) (FEB)
55 .7
55.5
9:30
GBP
Purchas ing Ma nage rs ' Index Manufacturing (s u rve y) (FEB)
53 .0
52.8
13:30
CAD
C urrent Acco u n t (BOP) (4 Q)
$6 .1 B
$5.1 B
13:30 USD Pers o nal In co m e (JAN )
0 .3 %
0 .5 %
13:30 USD Pers o nal Spen ding (JAN )
0 .4 %
0 .7 %
13:30 USD Pers o nal C o ns u m ption Expenditu re Core (MoM) (JAN )
0 .2 %
0 .1 %
13:30 USD Initial Jo bles s C la im s (FEB 2 4 )
328K
33 2K
15:00 USD ISM Manu fa cturing (FEB)
50 .0
49.3
 
DISCLAIMER:This report is prepared by Forexserve exclusively for Reliance Money.The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Forexserve does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any currencies. Forexserve and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any currencies mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such assets/currencies (or investment).
 
Reliance Disclaimer
 
 
 
Previous Research Reports

Mar 7 2007 10:38AM
7th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
Recovery was the main theme in the foreign exchange market today as the yen crosses saw their biggest one day rally since the unwinding began last Tuesday

Mar 6 2007 10:23AM
6th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
The dollar rebounded from a three-month low against the yen this morning as a recovery in Tokyo shares helped stem a weeklong sell-off in risky assets that was

Mar 5 2007 8:48AM
5th March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
After having held steady for most of the week, the demand for Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc against the British pound was too much for the currency to handle.

Mar 2 2007 10:09AM
2nd March 2007 Daily Short term strategies
The dollar had tumbled to an 11-week low against the yen yesterday, as another wave of investors unwound carry trades

Feb 28 2007 10:35AM
28th Feb 2007 Daily Short term strategies
The financial markets have taken a blood bath today with the Dow plunging over 400 points and the dollar hitting a 1 year low against the Japanese Yen

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