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Bullion Report
Feb 21 2007 10:05AM
21st Feb 2007 Bullion Report

GOLD
FUNDAMENTALS  
Gold prices plunged on Tuesday as weakness in crude oil prices and strength in greenback rekindled selling interest in the yellow metal. Gold for April delivery shed $11.80 during the session and closed at $661 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The greenback rose against the yen, reflecting growing expectations that even if the Bank of Japan lifts interest rates, Japanese interest rates are likely to remain at relatively low levels. Currently the interest rate in Japan stands at 0.25%. Today’s inflation data would be crucial for the fate of the currency.

Consumer demand for gold in Saudi Arabia turned bleak in 2006 with 20% decline in tonnage terms compared to 2005 results. However, demand jumped 15% higher in the last quarter of the year. The outlook for 2007 gold demand in the region looks promising, according to WGC report.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Gold slips on weaker crude and strong dollar Bears
2.
UAE gold sales up 536% in fourth quarter Bulls 
3.
China to produce 260 mt gold in 07. Bears
4.
Comex warehouse stocks remain unchanged. Bears


EVENT WATCH: (Monday)
Consumer Price Index, CPI core, Leading Indicators
 
TECHNICALS
Gold Charts are giving mixed signals. Long dark candle suggest weakness in the market as prices closed below short term EMAs. Stochastic is negative in neutral region. However, rising MACD in positive zone shows increasing bullish momentum.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-April
Sell
<9500
9432
9410
9540
9376
9410
9466
9536
9566





SILVER
FUNDAMENTALS  
Silver prices also slipped following the weakness in gold on Monday despite metal’s strong fundamentals. March silver closed down 16 cents at $13.83 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Weakness in copper also added some bearish sentiments to the silver market. March copper ended down 5.85 cents at $2.586 a pound.

Comex warehouse stocks gained 527,826 troy ounces to stand at 116.26 million troy ounces.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Silver enjoys strong fundamentals. Bulls
2.
Copper futures slips down Bears
3.
Comex stocks gained 527,826 ounces. Bears


EVENT WATCH:
Events covered under gold section
 
TECHNICALS
Silver charts are also giving mixed signals. The prices managed to close above 18-day EMA, which shows medium term outlook is still positive. Rising MACD in the positive zone also shows increasing bullish momentum. However, stochastic is negative in neutral region. The prices are likely to show volatility.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-Mar
Sell
< 20200
20000
19900
20300
19766
20900
20104
20364
20615
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


Reliance Disclaimer


Previous Research Reports

Mar 1 2007 11:43AM
1st March 2007 Bullion Report
Gold prices recovered in the early European trade, after experiencing sharp decline in the previous trading session, on bargain hunting

Feb 28 2007 9:31AM
28th Feb 2007 Bullion Report
Gold prices corrected sharply lower, after reaching nine months highs, as traders decided to take profit

Feb 27 2007 9:35AM
27th Feb 2007 Bullion Report
More central banks are seen cutting their holding of US dollar

Feb 26 2007 10:24AM
26th Feb 2007 Bullion Report
Gold gained momentum in the early electronic trades taking a cue from firmer crude oil prices and weaker dollar

Feb 24 2007 9:27AM
24th Feb 2007 Bullion Report
In London spot markets gold continued to be offered at higher tick and was quoting $9 stronger at $684.8 per troy ounce

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