Jul 22--Phillip Securities (Thailand) PCL
Distributor - Bisnews AFE
Market Outlook: Highly volatile in the morning with profit-taking expected
following yesterday's strong rally
Yesterday, Thai shares staged a strong rebound as foreign selling
pressure was easing, seen as a better sign for the broader market picture.
However, the market is still waiting for powerful catalysts that will keep the
rally alive, as hotly political issues continue to weigh on the market. The
row with Cambodia over the Preah Vihear temple remains unsettled. The number
of court cases against some cabinet members and the upcoming cabinet reshuffle
are still the key issues to watch. We expect some profit taking to set in
following yesterday's strong gains in this morning's trade, but trading volume
appears to remain light. Regional sentiment looks weak, as Dow Jones futures
lost by 100 points in early trade following dismal results from a batch of
companies after the bell on Wall Street overnight. During the day, trade is
expected to be choppy, as the market remains directionless. But a great deal
of good fundamental stocks look appealing, as the market is now very much
oversold. In our view, the current market levels present an opportunity to
accumulate fundamentally sound stocks on weakness.
Resistance: 700-710
Support: 680-675
Factors affecting the market:
- US stocks slipped 29.23 points on Mon as oil rebounded after last
week's steep decline and Merck and Schering-Plough hurt the pharmaceuticals
sector. Added to the gloom, dismal corporate results after the bell from a
batch of companies including American Express, Apple and Texas Instruments set
a bearish tone for Tue with Dow Jones futures sliding 100 points in this
morning trade.
- Oil shot up US$2.16 on the NYMEX to finish at US$131.04/barrel on
expectations that tropical storm Dolly would barrel into major oil refinery
areas in Texas, stocking fears of disruptions to US offshore oil and gas
production, and the market remained jittery about the dispute between Iran and
western powers over Iran's nuclear program.
- Eyes on local political development: (i) The row over the Preah
Vihear temple between Thai army chief and Cambodia remains unsettled, and (ii)
the Constitutional Court will give a verdict whether Deputy Commerce Minister
Viroon Techapaibul has violated a 5% cap on equity holdings today.
- Foreign investors continued to dump Thai shares, but to a smallerextent, worth Bt437m yesterday.
+ The Thai economy grew at a pace of 5.9% in 1H08, and growth was
expected to be in a range of 5-5.5% in the second half, based on oil price
assumptions of US$130-US$140/barrel, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.
For the year, the economy would grow at an average rate of 5-6%.
NOTE:
(+) Positive (-) Negative (0) May or May not affect SET
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The information contained herein is based on sources which Phillip Securities
(Thailand) believes reliable.We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Opinions and estimates expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
This report is for information only and should not be construed as an offer
or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities referred to herein.
We accept no liability for any loss, direct or indirect, from the use of this
document. The directors and/or employees of Phillip Securities and or its
associates may have an interest in the securities mentioned herein.--End--