* What: India's December industrial output 
    * When: About noon (0630 GMT) on Tuesday, Feb. 12 
    * Growth seen rebounding from Nov but moderation to continue 
    NEW DELHI, Feb 11 (Reuters) - India's industrial output in 
December is forecast to have grown an annual 7.6 percent, 
accelerating from the previous month, but tight policy and a 
strong rupee are seen limiting expansion in months ahead. 
    Output growth has slowed from annual rates of 10 percent-plus 
in 2006 and the first half of 2007, although economic growth is 
seen slightly above the central bank's forecast of 8.5 percent in 
the fiscal year that ends in March. 
    The median forecast for industrial expansion <INIP=ECI> in a 
Reuters poll of 10 analysts was higher than November's annual 
growth of 5.3 percent, but way below October's upwardly revised 
12.0 percent. 
    "Even though the overall trend in industrial production is 
toward moderation, the December data are likely to show a 
recovery from the previous month," Rajeev Malik, an economist at 
JP Morgan in Singapore, wrote in a research note. 
    "The cumulative impact of monetary tightening and softer 
external demand will soften industrial activity in the coming 
months but higher capex and infrastructure spending will likely 
be key offsetting forces." 
    The ABN Amro Bank purchasing manager's index (PMI) showed 
manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in almost 
three years during December, suggesting industrial output in the 
month would rebound from November's sluggish data. 
    The Indian rupee rose more than 12 percent against the dollar 
last year, putting pressure on exports and weighing on the 
manufacturing sector <INMFG=ECI>, which accounts for 15 percent 
of gross domestic product. 
    At a policy review last month, the Reserve Bank of India kept 
rates steady saying inflation risks persisted. 
    That came after the central bank raised interest rates five 
times in 10 months from June 2006, and tightened banks' reserve 
requirements through last year to keep a lid on credit growth and 
inflation. 
    Industrial production accounts for about a fifth of GDP in 
Asia's third-largest economy, and analysts said they expect 
output to grow around 9 percent in the fiscal year to March 2008. 
    The following table shows forecasts for December industrial 
output. 
    (Percentage change from a year earlier) 
--------------------------------------------- 
RESPONDENTS                       FORECAST  
--------------------------------------------- 
ICRA                                 9.0 
Institute For Economic Growth        8.5 
Bank of Baroda                       8.5 
ICRIER                               8.0 
JP Morgan                            7.7 
CMIE                                 7.4 
Lehman Brothers                      7.3 
Indicus Analytics                    6.7 
Yes Bank                             6.1 
Kotak Mahindra Bank                  6.0 
--------------------------------------------- 
Median                               7.6 
Average                              7.5 
High                                 9.0 
Low                                  6.0 
---------------------------------------------- 
 (Reporting by Surojit Gupta and Rajkumar Ray, Editing by Mark 
Williams) 
 (([email protected]; +91-11-4178-1016; Reuters 
Messaging: [email protected])) 
Keywords: INDIA ECONOMY/INDUSTRY