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Market Commentary
Jul 16 2008 3:55PM
Sensex, Nifty nosedive to fresh 15-month lows

Key benchmark indices suffered losses to register fresh 15-month low on unabated selling pressure in blue-chip stocks. This was despite a firm start triggered by a sharp fall in crude oil prices yesterday, 15 July 2008. Volatility was the hallmark of todays trade. The market breadth was weak. Real estate stocks crashed. Ranbaxy Labs was the star of the day, galloping over 15% on high volumes.

Global cues were mixed. European markets, which opened after Indian market, slipped after firm start. Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, were mixed.

Crude oil prices declined sharply on Tuesday, 15 July 2008. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, August crude settled down $6.44, or 4.44%, at $138.74 a barrel yesterday, 15 July 2008.

Political uncertainty will continue to weight on the Indian market in the near term. The government is holding a two-day special session of parliament on 21 July 2008 and 22 July 2008 to seek vote of confidence after it was reduced to minority following withdrawal of support by Left parties on 8 July 2008. The government hopes to retain power due to backing from Samajwadi Party, a regional party in Uttar Pradesh.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 23.57 points or 0.19% at 12,652.62, as per provisional closing. It touched a fresh 15-month low of 12,514.02 in mid-afternoon trade. At the days low the Sensex lost 162.17 points. The Sensex opened with 133.74 point upward gap at 12,809.93 and advanced further to touch a high of 12,935.25 in mid-morning trade. At the day's high, the Sensex rose 259.06 points.

The broader based S&P; CNX Nifty was down 18.20 points or 0.47% at 3,842.90, as per provisional closing. Nifty hit a 15-month low of 3,790.20 in intra-day trade.

The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 1.15% to 5,104.03 and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.25% to 6,350.33, as per provisional closing. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was weak on BSE with 1788 shares declining as compared to 827 that advanced. 75 remained unchanged.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4557 crore as compared to Rs 3398 crore by 14:30 IST

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 18 declined while the rest them gained.

Indias largest pharma company in terms of sales Ranbaxy Laboratories was the star of the days trading session. The stock galloped 15.10% to Rs 471.05 on high volumes of 69.90 lakh shares after the company's chief executive Malvinder Singh said in a televised conference that the deal with Japan's Daiichi Sankyo remains on track. He also said that the firm would provide all information required for a probe by the US authorities within the next month. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack.

Ranbaxy shares tumbled nearly 23% in last two trading sessions to Rs 409.25 on 15 July 2008 from Rs 531.45 on 11 July 2008 on concerns a US probe may impact Ranbaxy's latest deal with Daiichi Sankyo. US government has filed a motion, seeking certain documents from Ranbaxy over doubts of it indulging in alleged malpractices like concealing and forging crucial data to get marketing approval for its products in the US.

Telecom duo saw divergent trend. While Indias largest cellular services provider in terms of market capitalisation Bharati Airtel advanced 2.68% to Rs 729, Reliance Communications, the countrys second largest cellular services provider in terms of market capitalisation lost 1.13% to Rs 401.50.

Two oil exploration heavyweights saw divergent trend. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) gained 2.60% to Rs 867 while Cairn India lost 3.96% to Rs 226.50

Indias largest cigarette manufacturer in terms of sales ITC gained 2.43% to Rs 164.05. As per reports Amar Singh, whose Samajwadi Party is the key to the survival of the ruling Congress-led UPA Government wants the Unit Trust of India (UTI) and other public financial institutions to divest their stake in ITC in favour of British American Tobacco (BAT). Public financial institutions have a combined 37.62% (as at end March 2008) holding in ITC, which includes 11.90% of UTI and 13.65% of Life Insurance Corporation of India.

Hindustan Unilever (up 2.53% to Rs 217), Ambuja Cements (up 1.43% to Rs 81.35), and Reliance Infrastructure (up 1.05% to Rs 755.50), edged higher from Sensex pack.

Indias largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries shed 1.10% at Rs 1955.10 on 15.51 lakh shares. The stock moved in a range of Rs 2024.90 and Rs 1922.50 during the day.

Real estate stocks cracked on renewed selling pressure. Indias largest real estate developer DLF lost 7.48% to Rs 395 on 22.13 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.

Unitech (down 10.68% to Rs 137.15), Sobha Developers (down 4.51% to Rs 229.55), Omaxe (down 5.55% to Rs 115.55), Ansal Infrastructures (down 4.16% to Rs 82.35), and Anant Raj Industries (down 2.95% to Rs 119), were the other losers from the realty pack.

India's largest software services provider TCS lost 3.16% to Rs 726 ahead of its Q1 June 2008 results due today. The stock had hit a high of Rs 769 in early trade. The stock also hit an all time low of Rs 719.10 in intra-day trade.

Other IT pivotals were mixed. Satyam Computer Services (down 0.49% to Rs 396.25), and Wipro (down 1.16% to Rs 373.55) fell.

However India's second largest software services provider Infosys staged a solid recovery from days low of Rs 1527.35 to settle 0.65% at Rs 1554.10

Auto stocks dropped despite a sharp fall in crude oil yesterday, 15 July 2008. Tata Motors (down 1.72% to Rs 397.05), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 5.55% to Rs 493), Hero Honda Motors (down 2.38% to Rs 638), and Bajaj Auto (down 5.16% to Rs 455), slipped from auto pack.

State Bank of India (down 3.21% to Rs 1140), Jaiprakash Associates (down 5.88% to Rs 136.80), and ACC (down 2.35% to Rs 514), were the other losers from Sensex pack.

S Kumar Nationwide swung wildly in choppy trade. The stock which was down around 23% at days low of Rs 52.55 staged a solid rebound. It ended 5.43% lower at Rs 64.50 on volumes of 14.78 lakh shares. The company reported 37.03% fall in net profit to Rs 26.86 crore on 1.2% rise in total income to Rs 383.91 crore in Q1 June 2008 over Q1 June 2007. The company announced the results during trading hours today, 16 July 2008.

Ranbaxy Laboratories was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 319.50 crore followed by Reliance Industries (Rs 308.53 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 294.84 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 285.18 crore), and Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 114.47 crore), in that order.

Sentiment may continue to remain cautious after the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday, 15 July 2008 said that while the likelihood is high that the US economy would slow further, the outlook for inflation had also intensified, providing little comfort for investors and consumers struggling in stagflationary conditions.

European markets, which opened after Indian market, were in the red. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were down by between 0.45% and 0.94%.

Asian markets, which opened after Indian markets, were trading mixed today, 16 July 2008. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong were up by between 0.05% and 0.23%. However indices from Taiwan, China, Singapore and South Korea were down by between 0.13% and 2.65% respectively.

US markets settled mixed yesterday, 15 July 2008, on worries about the success of the government plan to rescue mortgage finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and to stabilise the financial sector. The Dow Jones industrial average declined 92.65 points, or 0.84%, to 10,962.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 13.39 points, or 1.09%, to 1,214.91, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.84 points, or 0.13%, to 2,215.71.

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