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Equity News
Nov 11 2007 8:25AM
Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Credit worries, high oil cloud market

By Ian Chua

HONG KONG, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Asian stock markets are likely to be pinned down by inflation worries as oil prices hit a record high and as the credit crisis plays out, although some buyers might snap up stocks that were hit particularly hard by the recent sell-off.

Further Wall Street losses on Friday, triggered by news that Wachovia <WB.N>, the fourth-largest U.S. bank, lost $1.1 billion last month, are set to add to the downward pressure on international stock markets. Market watchers say miners will be a bright spot in the region after BHP Billiton's <BHP.AX> takeover bid for rival Rio Tinto <RIO.AX> fuels expectations for more deals in the sector.

Investors will also watch U.S. inflation data for signs of whether there is any price pressure building up following the rally in oil prices to a record high above $98 a barrel.

Signs of higher-than-expected inflation will curb expectation of another U.S. interest rate cut, which has supported markets early this month.

MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> dropped sharply as credit fears pounded financial stocks and a weak dollar dragged exporters lower. But it was still up about 40 percent this year.

After the strong rally in the last few months since the U.S. Federal Reserve started cutting its key funds rate in September, markets have run ahead of fundamentals, some analysts say.

"So it's not surprising to see a correction at the moment," said Garry Evans, Asia Pacific equity strategist at HSBC.

"We've got still quite difficult credit markets globally and question marks over the outlook for the U.S. economy. It's going to be choppy until the end of the year."

FACTORS TO WATCH (FOR WEEK STARTING NOV 12) ** For Asian company earnings, see [ASIA/EQTY] ** Key U.S. earnings/data (for Wall Street report, see [.N])

Monday - Veterans Day: U.S. bond markets closed

Tuesday - Earnings: Wal-Mart Stores <WMT.N> Q3 Wednesday - Oct producer prices, retail sales; Sept business

inventories

- Earnings: Applied Materials <AMAT.O> Q4

Thursday - Oct consumer prices, real earnings

-- ** IN JAPAN (for Tokyo report, see [.T]) The Nikkei average is seen nearing a bottom after a 5.7 percent drop in the past week as investors return to some battered stocks.

"The sell-off will probably peak out ... and the market may go back to the upward trend, at least for a little while," said Yosuke Shimizu, head of investment centre at Monex Inc.

Shimizu said the rebound was likely to be led by companies with solid earnings prospects such as trading houses and shipping firms. He forecast the Nikkei <.N225> to move between 15,300 and 16,200.

Monday - Earnings: Isuzu Motors <7202.T> H1 results

- Bank of Japan 2-day policy meeting starts

- Oct corporate goods price index

- Sept current account; Oct consumer confidence

Tuesday - Earnings: Aiful <8515.T>, Taiheiyo Cement

<5233.T>

- BOJ policy meeting outcome

- July-Sept quarter GDP data (preliminary)

Wednesday - Earnings: Shinsei Bank <8303.T> H1 results

Thursday - Sept METI tertiary sector activity index

Friday - Earnings: Olympus Corp <7733.T> H1 earnings

- BOJ Oct 10-11 policy meeting minutes

- Sept leading indicator (revised)

-- ** IN KOREA (for Seoul report, see [.KS])

Stocks are expected to trade in a tight range, hamstrung by worries about the strength in the South Korean currency and record high oil prices.

A string of U.S. economic indicators, which would provide a clue as to how the subprime mortgage troubles are affecting demand in the world's largest economy, will be watched.

"It won't be easy for the market to regain stability, with U.S. markets staggering and oil prices remaining at historic highs," said Kim Joong-hyun, a market analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities.

"The credit crisis, a firm won <KRW=> and record oil prices are not a problem that can be resolved in a short period of time."

Wednesday - Oct unemployment rate,1:30 p.m. (0430 GMT)

-- ** IN HONG KONG (for Hong Kong report, see [.HK])

Brokers expect Hong Kong stocks will be prone to more weakness, with the U.S. Veterans day holiday dampening turnover.

"We ought to go to 27,800," said Andrew Sullivan, head of sales trading at Daiwa Securities, suggesting a further fall of about 1,000 points for the key Hang Seng Index <.HSI>.

"Until we consolidate, we'll just see volatility."

Monday - Sept external trade price, volume

Tuesday - Zhong An Real Estate <0672.HK> and GCL Poly

Energy Holdings Ltd <3800.HK> debut

Wednesday - Oct external assets of the Exchange Fund

Results: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing

<0388.HK>; Tencent Holdings <0700.HK>

Friday - Q3 Gross Domestic Product

--

Keywords: MARKETS ASIA WEEKAHEAD

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