By Wanfeng Zhou
NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Asian central banks have sold
U.S. dollars in recent sessions in an attempt to rescue their
battered currencies, but their efforts may prove futile against
a resurgent greenback that has caught fire after a seven-year
decline.
Many Asian currencies, which enjoyed a good run last year,
have been hammered since late July, as the dollar soared amid
concerns over capital outflows and slower economic growth in
the region.
Weakness across the region's currencies has sparked moves
by Asian central banks to prop up their currencies against the
greenback. Authorities in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India
and the Philippines were spotted selling dollars in the foreign
exchange market this week. South Korea intervened on Friday for
a third day to defend the struggling won.
But so far, these attempts have been unsuccessful as the
dollar's surge is just too strong to overcome, analysts say.
"At this point, they're (central banks) not trying to
reverse it," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown
Brothers Harriman in New York. "There is no way they can do it.
The dollar is gaining across the board."
"But they are trying to sort of slow the move," Thin said.
"They just want to make sure the market remains orderly."
Plunging oil prices, worsening global prospects, and
expectations of eventual U.S. interest rate increases have
underpinned a month-long recovery in the dollar.
In contrast, macroeconomic fundamentals, which had
supported Asian currency strength in the past, have
deteriorated, with a global slowdown putting more pressure on
the region's economic outlook.
Authorities in South Korea have sold $30 billion in 2008 to
boost the currency. Yet the won <KRW=> has fallen about 19.4
percent so far this year, according to Reuters data, the
worst-performing currency in Asia. South Korea's economy,
heavily reliant on commodity imports, felt the full brunt of
soaring prices.
Dollar-selling by Korea's central bank over the past three
days has given the won some breathing room, but it remains
under heavy selling pressure amid a deteriorating economic
backdrop.
"With export growth hitting a brick wall in the month of
August, speculators believe that South Korea's economy is
headed downhill," said Kathy Lien, director of currency
research at GFT Forex in New York. "Past interventions by South
Korea have been futile. History indicates that the market is
always right."
ASIA STRUGGLES
Aside from the won, the Thai baht <THB=> has also
struggled, with a drop of 15.6 percent so far this year, along
with the Philippine peso <PHP=> ,down 13.7 percent.
A sizable depletion in reserves may be a sign a central
bank is protecting a fundamentally weak currency, Morgan
Stanley said in a research report, citing the Bank of Korea,
State Bank of Pakistan, and Bank of Thailand.
Up until recently, Asian central bankers had been mostly
concerned about currency strength. They had sold their
currencies and bought the dollar, keeping their currencies at
artificially low levels to boost the competitiveness of their
exports in the global market.
Over the past year, some Asian countries have scaled back
intervention, using their strong currencies to temper rising
inflation fueled by soaring commodities prices.
But things have changed dramatically in recent weeks. As
commodity prices eased and global growth slowed, the focus for
Asian countries has shifted from curbing inflation to boosting
the economy, analysts said.
"They are seeing more signs of growth weakness. The markets
are also much more aware of the fact that the rest of the world
is slowing down," Brown Brothers' Thin said. "I think a lot of
these Asian exporters are now very concerned about growth."
For this reason, analysts argued that Asian central banks
may be comfortable with some currency weakness.
Asia will likely take a major hit ahead as the world's
economies decelerate, said Stephen Jen, global head of currency
research at Morgan Stanley in London.
He thinks most Asian currencies, excluding the yen, could
fall another 10 percent or more, with the won and the Indian
rupee <INR=> the most vulnerable.
However, "Asia is different from Europe...if and when the
world slows, the policy focus in Asia would very quickly shift
from inflation to growth," Jen said. "This means that monetary
and credit policies will ease, and weaker currencies will be
welcomed in Asia; interventions will be curtailed."
(Editing by Leslie Adler)
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Keywords: MARKETS FOREX/INTERVENTION