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Thursday, October 11, 2007
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Forex News
Oct 10 2007 5:57PM
Bullish Indian rupee held back by cbank - traders

(Updates to close)

MUMBAI, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Suspected central bank intervention blocked the Indian rupee's path after it jumped to a 9-1/2-year high on Wednesday, partially offsetting the massive capital flows into the surging stock market, dealers said.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 39.3150/3250 per dollar, after it had risen to 39.2975, its highest since March 1998. On Tuesday, it had closed at 39.44/45. Traders said the dollar could find some technical support around 39.18.

"There are some resistance levels for the rupee in sight, but they're meaningless with these kind of inflows," said a senior dealer with a foreign bank.

"Right now the only meaningful resistance is from the central bank," added the dealer, who estimates the Reserve Bank of India bought about $1 billion on Wednesday in a bid to temper the rupee's ascent.

Data shows the central bank bought $38.1 billion in the first seven months of 2007, to cap the rupee's gains.

Still, with India's benchmark share index <.BSESN> hitting its 14th record high in 15 sessions, and closing 2 percent higher on Wednesday, overseas investors are likely to move more funds in, dealers said.

Foreigners have bought about $2.3 billion of equities this month, taking their net purchases for 2007 to $15.3 billion, which has helped the rupee rise more than 12.5 percent to be Asia's best performing currency against the dollar this year.

Some sections of the market remained cautious, however, citing the pace of the rupee's rise as a source of concern.

Global ratings agency Standard and Poor's said on Tuesday it expected the rupee's rise to be capped by the central bank.

"...we expect the Reserve Bank of India to resist appreciation beyond current levels and the rupee will end the year at around 40.50 per dollar," Subir Gokarn, S&P's chief economist for Asia Pacific, said in a statement. ((Reporting by C.J. Kurrien, editing by Ranjit Gangadharan; Reuters Messaging: [email protected], 91-22-6636 9037)) Keywords: MARKETS INDIA RUPEE

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