(Adds U.N. statement on envoy Gambari's meeting)
By Ed Cropley
BANGKOK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Myanmar's rejection of three-way
talks with a U.N. envoy and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
may reflect the junta's disdain for anything but its own widely
derided "democracy roadmap," analysts and diplomats said.
Though the ruling generals left open a tiny door for more
visits by envoy Ibrahim Gambari, by rejecting U.N.-mediated
dialogue mainly for being premature, state media laid into the world body on Wednesday, accusing it of bias and interference.
The four pages of "clarification on Myanmar's situation" in
the New Light of Myanmar, the junta's main mouthpiece, stunned
diplomats, who saw a sliver of hope in Gambari's two visits
since September's bloody crackdown on democracy protests.
"There's no doubt in my mind that this regime has no
intention of cooperating with Gambari or of starting a process
of genuine political dialogue," one Yangon-based diplomat said.
"It's beyond them."
But former Australian ambassador Trevor Wilson said it was
not unheard of for the junta in the former Burma to dismiss an
outside proposal, such as the three-way talks idea, and return
later with a similar idea packaged as a home-grown initiative.
"They won't accept any proposition like this unless they
can demonstrate it's not outside pressure and outside
interference," Wilson said. "They very often don't come at
something first time around, particularly if it's not something
they thought of."
The challenge for Gambari is to cut through the rhetoric
and convince the regime that talks about political reform with
Suu Kyi, whose party won a 1990 election landslide only to be
denied power, could be in its own interests, Wilson said.
The United Nations said Gambari met Prime Minister Thein
Sein on Wednesday to discuss ways to improve Myanmar's
cooperation with the world body.
Gambari had "stressed that a return to the status quo
before the crisis would not be sustainable," said a U.N.
statement issued in New York.
"The prime minister reiterated his government's full
support for and confidence in Mr Gambari's efforts on behalf of
the Secretary General, and invited him to return to Myanmar."
STUBBORN
Myanmar analysts in exile said the tone of the state media
suggested complete intransigence on the part of junta supremo
Than Shwe, whom many suspect is in denial about the deepening
poverty that initially fueled anti-junta protests in August.
In what was basically a lecture to Gambari reported in full
in state media, Information Minister Kyaw Hsan launched into
detailed criticism of the United Nations, especially the failed
U.S.-led attempt to refer Myanmar to the Security Council in
January.
"I would like you to know that Myanmar is a small nation
and if a big power bullies her with its influences by putting
Myanmar's affairs on UNSC, we will have no other way but to
face and endure," the minister said. "You should not force or
pressure us."
Kyaw Hsan acknowledged that the "national economy and
public socio-economy are not developing as they should" but
laid the blame on international sanctions, rather than the
policy ineptitude and corruption cited by Western governments.
"This shows how stubborn the generals are," said Win Min, a
former student who now lectures in neighboring Thailand. "They
don't want to talk. They just want to buy time."
Calls for U.N. sanctions against Myanmar have been
dismissed by veto-holding Security Council member China, one of
the junta's few friends, and India, which is keen on expanded
trade, including Myanmar's rich natural gas deposits.
Veto-holding Russia, which has sold weapons to the junta,
has said U.N. sanctions would be premature.
"Than Shwe is not going to be making concessions. He
refuses to accept the social and economic problems of the
people," said Win Min, who fled a 1988 crackdown in which an
estimated 3,000 people were killed.
"He doesn't want to listen to reality."
Since soldiers crushed monk-led protests in September,
killing at least 10 people and possibly many more, the junta
has faced unprecedented pressure to move away from the 45 years
of army rule that have crippled a once-promising economy.
But state media have indicated the only reform plan on the
table is the junta's own seven-stage "roadmap to democracy" --
dismissed by Western governments as a sham to keep the army in
power.
Stage one, drawing up the basis of a new constitution, took
14 years, and nobody knows what stage two -- "step-by-step
implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a
genuine and disciplined democratic system" -- actually means.
Gambari, who has failed to secure a meeting with Than Shwe
on his visit, is expected to meet Suu Kyi on his return to
Yangon from Myanmar's new capital, Naypyidaw, on Thursday.
(Additional reporting by Claudia Parsons at the United
Nations; Editing by Michael Battye and John O'Callaghan)
((Bangkok newsroom, [email protected]; +66 2648
9722))
Keywords: MYANMAR/