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Commodity News
Sep 9 2008 10:38AM
Oilseeds sharply down on global mkts

Mumbai - Indian vegetable oilseed futures are trading down tracking the heavy losses in the global edible oil and energy markets. The weak domestic sentiments of sufficient supply of imported edible oils, picking up of new khariff arrivals and the approaching peak arrival season also added to the selling pressure.

The Malaysian palm oil futures has ended the morning session on heavy long liquidation inspired by losses in US soy oil, crude oil in electronic trading. The US soy complex closed tad up overnight. However, it is trading sharply down currently with December soy oil and November soybean quoting down by 104 points and 20.75 cents on e-CBOT.

The energy markets are seeing heavy losses. October crude oil at New York Mercantile Exchange closed tad up at 106.34 a barrel erasing all early gains. However, it is trading sharply down by $ 1.29 a barrel currently.

Indian oilseed futures are trading sharply down with heavy selling seen on account of the heavy losses in the global edible oil and energy markets. The selling pressure in imported palm oil within India, picking up of new arrivals, release of old stocks by stockists is also adding to the already weak sentiments in the Indian markets.

The global commodity markets are witnessing sharp sell off on account of the strength in US Dollar against Euro. The U.S. has currency strengthened to the highest since October 2007. The Government has taken over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has encouraged investors to move funds out of commodities into the stock market. A rising dollar curbs the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge and reduces the exports of US commodities as they become costlier.

The weak domestic sentiments are also adding to the selling pressure, despite the markets being in an over-sold condition. The arrival of new soybean in Maharashtra has picked up to around 15,000 bag levels [1 bag=90-100 kg]. While arrival if new soybean in Madhya Pradesh and new groundnut in Gujarat are not very significant currently, the release of old stocks by stockists are keeping the selling pressure high.

The market is expecting this seasons oilseed output to be slightly better than previous years levels. Soybean output is expected to reach 10.5-11 million tonnes. The recent Government estimates indicate that Indias khariff oilseed acreage as on September 4th is up by 2.23% from previous years level at 17.46 million hectares.

Meanwhile, traders are also looking forward to fresh leads from a conference on vegetable oils that started on Tuesday in Singapore. London-based analysts Mr. Dorab Mistry and James Fry will give their next price forecasts during the conference. On August 25, Mr. Mistry forecasted that CPO futures are unlikely to fall below MYR 2,200 a tonne for the next few weeks if crude stabilized around $100 a barrel, +/-$10. In February, Mr. Fry forecasted that CPO prices were likely to fall towards MYR 2,900 a tonne by August.

The October soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] at 10.25 hours is trading lower at Rs. 2,098.00 [- 25.00] per 100 kg with 19,760 tonnes traded. The October contract at National Board of Trade [NBOT] is down at Rs. 2,110.00 [- 13.00] per 100 kg.

October CPO at Multi Commodity Exchange of India is trading lower at Rs. 349.50 [- 6.70] per 10 kg with 1,160 tonnes traded.

Crude Palm Oil [CPO] futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] has ended the morning session sharply down tracking the heavy losses in US soy oil, crude oil. Anticipation of a monthly drop in September 1-10 exports and bearish monthly report, both of which are expected to be released tomorrow are also adding to the selling pressure.

The benchmark November contract after touching an intra-day three week low of MYR 2,367 has ended the morning session down at MYR 2,379.00 [- 90.00] a tonne with 7,761 lots traded. [MYR=Malaysian Ringitt]

The US soy complex closed moderately up on Monday supported by technically inspired buying and lingering crop concerns. The market is still worried over uncertainty surrounding this seasons late-maturing soy crop. However, upside movement was capped by a firmer U.S. dollar and flat crude oil.

September soybeans settled 14 1/2 cents higher at $11.94 1/2 and November soybeans ended 15 cents higher at $11.92. December soybean meal settled $1.30 higher at $328.30 per short ton. December soy oil finished 35 points higher at 49.24 cents per pound.

MUSTARD SEED

Mustard seed futures is trading down with heavy selling pressure being seen on account of the weak cash markets and sharp losses in the global edible oil, energy markets and weakness in domestic soybean. Heavy release of stocks of old seeds, imported oils by stockists in the cash market ahead of the peak arrival season of khariff oilseeds is also pressurizing the market.

Most active mustard seed November futures on NCDEX is trading lower at Rs. 572.50 [- 5.85] per 20 kg with 19,780 tonnes traded. The regional markets are down with November contract at Hapur quoting at Rs. 636.90 [- 1.20] per 100 kg.

CASTOR SEED

Castor seed futures is trading down with sentiments affected by the highly soft tone in edible oilseeds and the dull demand in cash markets due to sufficient stocks with exporters, crushing units and no major requirement for castor oil from the export markets. The strong improvement in acreage and expectation of increase in production over previous years are also affecting sentiments.

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