Friday, February 29, 2008
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Forex Commentary
Feb 27 2008 9:07AM
IBM acts as the catalyst for US Market

US Market ignored the weak economic data today, Tuesday, 25 February, 2008 but focused more on IBM and bond insurers news and ultimately ended the day with good gains. News of buyback from IBM offsets the weak consumer sentiments today. All ten of the major economic sectors finished the day for the better. Energy made the best showing after crude prices hit a new intraday high.

The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a gain of 115 points at 12,685. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished higher by 17 points at 2,345. S&P; 500 finished higher by 10 points at 1,381.

Twenty-three out of thirty Dow stocks ended in the green today, led by IBM.

IBM stock was up nearly 4% today after the tech giant raised its 2008 earnings forecast due to the positive impact of a $15 billion stock buyback plan.

Earlier in the day, market opened in a negative note. The slight selling pressure was fueled by a higher than expected inflation reading. January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1% month-over-month, compared to the expected rise of 0.4%. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the consensus estimate that called for a rise of 0.2%.

Also, the Conference Board said that February consumer confidence fell to 75 from the prior reading of 87.3. Economists expected a reading of 82. Separately, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, a regional manufacturing survey, fell to -5. Economists expected a reading of -12. A reading below 0 reflects contraction in manufacturing in that region.

But with the impact of IBM news, market reversed gear and traded in the green for the rest of the day.

Crude prices rose today as cold weather continued to grip parts of North East and Mid West USA. Dropping dollar against euro also pushed crude prices also higher prompting traders to invest in commodities against a hedge against inflation. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for April delivery today closed at $100.88/barrel (higher by $1.65/barrel or 1.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the highest close since trading began in 1983. Earlier in the session, the April contract touched a high of $101.06/barrel.

In the earnings section, Target pointed to a weakening economy as its fourth-quarter earnings fell. Home Depot also reported a 27.5% profit decline. Home Depot expects 2008 adjusted earnings per share to slide as much as 24% on a 5% sales drop.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange topped 1.5 billion, and advancing stocks passed decliners more than 2 to 1. On the Nasdaq, more than 1 billion shares traded, with advancing issues outrunning those declining, 9 to 5.

Tomorrow there are economic reports on the dock. Durable Goods Orders for January are due tomorrow morning followed by the January New Home Sales reading. Federal Chairman Bernanke will speak to the Financial Services Committee for his semiannual monetary policy testimony also tomorrow morning.

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