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Monday, December 10, 2007
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Equity News
Dec 9 2007 7:48AM
Asia Stocks Week Ahead-Market rebound seen alive, eyes on Fed
    By Ian Chua 
    HONG KONG, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Asian stocks should push higher 
in the coming week as investors fret less over the outlook for 
the U.S. economy, with all eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve's 
policy meeting on Tuesday where markets are pricing in a 
quarter-point rate cut. 
    "To some extent, the 25 basis point rate cut is already 
priced into the markets, but we're still in the recovery phase 
for Asian markets after the sharp decline in November," said 
Hirokazu Yuihama, regional strategist at Daiwa Institute of 
Research. 
    Yuihama said rate-sensitive markets such as Hong Kong and 
Singapore will benefit most from lower U.S. rates, but Taiwan, 
which is heavily dependent on U.S. demand for its products, may 
suffer in the next couple of months as the U.S. economy slows. 
    For the first week of December, MSCI's measure of Asia 
Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> rose nearly 2 
percent, rebounding from an 8.4 percent slump in November. 
    The U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday showed a gain of 
94,000 jobs in November, after an increase of 166,000 payrolls in 
October, in line with expectations. 
    -- 
    FACTORS TO WATCH (for week starting Dec. 10) 
 ** For Asian company earnings, see [ASIA/EQTY] 
 ** Key U.S. earnings/data (for Wall Street report, see [.N]) 
    Tuesday   - Fed policy meeting/outcome 
    Wednesday - Nov import/export prices; Oct int'l trade 
    Thursday  - Earnings: Lehman Brothers <LEH.N> Q4 
              - Nov retail sales, producer prices, Oct business 
                inventories 
    Friday    - Nov consumer prices, real earnings, industrial 
                output 
    -- 
 ** IN JAPAN (for Tokyo report, see [.T]) 
    Stocks are seen extending gains as worries about the U.S. 
economy continue to wane. 
    "The market will likely be relatively strong as the subprime 
problems are calming down," said Yosuke Shimizu, head of 
investment centre at Monex Inc. "The Nikkei's downside will 
likely cement around 15,800." 
    Investors will likely pick up high-tech exporters, encouraged 
by a softening yen, and beaten-down issues such as trading 
houses, he said, adding the Nikkei <.N225> should move between 
15,800 and 16,500. 
    Monday    - October machinery orders data 
              - Nov money supply/bank lending data 
    Tuesday   - Nov consumer confidence 
    Wednesday - Nov corporate goods price index (CGPI) 
              - October current account 
    Thursday  - Revised Oct industrial output 
              - Revised retail sales for October 
    Friday    - BOJ's December tankan survey 
    -- 
 ** IN KOREA (for Seoul report, see [.KS]) 
    Analysts expect the KOSPI to drift sideways after a two-week 
rebound, with investors holding off taking new positions ahead of 
the Dec. 19 presidential election and persistent worries about 
the U.S. economy. 
    "The recent two-week advance had reflected expectations for a 
U.S. interest rate cut and government steps on mortgage 
borrowers, but no one believes the U.S. economy is doing well," 
said Kim Hak-kyoon, an analyst of Korea Investment & Securities. 
    Sunday    - November producer price index 
    Tuesday   - Deadline for submission of letters of intent for 
                a stake in Korea Express <000120.KS> 
    Wednesday - Nov unemployment rate 
    Thursday  - Korea Exchange Bank <004940.KS> n/conf 
    -- 
 ** IN HONG KONG (for Hong Kong report, see [.HK]) 
    Many analysts are betting Hong Kong's accelerating momentum 
could put the market above a 30,000 resistance level. Investors 
are likely to drive shares up before the Fed meeting, they say, 
then cash in afterwards. 
    "Quite a lot of news has already been factored in," said 
Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Brokerage. "There 
could be a bit of profit-taking to be had." 
    Monday    - Dongyue Group Ltd <0189.HK> trading debut 
    Wednesday - China Sunshine Paper <2002.HK> debuts 
    Friday    - Anton Oilfield Services Group <3337.HK> and Bio 
                Beauty Group <3332.HK> debut 
    -- 
 ** IN CHINA (for China report, see [.SS] 
    The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> is likely to hover 
around current levels, with confidence slowly returning as the 
market recovers from a drubbing in November. 
    "The index is establishing a bottom at around 4,800 points 
but a strong rally is not sustainable," said Zhang Yang, analyst 
at Oriental Securities Co. 
    Monday    - Nov producer price index 
              - 18th U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and 
                Trade  
    Tuesday   - Nov consumer price index 
              - Nov trade data (provisional) 
    Wednesday - Nov retail sales 
              - U.S. Treasury Sec Henry Paulson leads delegation 
                for 2 days of talks under U.S.-China strategic 
                economic dialogue 
    Thursday  - Nov industrial output data 
    Friday    - Nov fixed-asset investment data 
    -- 
 ** IN AUSTRALIA/NZ (for Sydney/Wellington report, see [.AX]) 
    Australian shares may extend their uptrend, buoyed by 
expectations of a U.S. rate cut, though gains are likely to be 
tentative given persistent uncertainties about the health of the 
U.S. economy. 
    "People will soon see that despite the fact the Fed is 
cutting rates and that the government is promoting remedies to 
mitigate damage from the subprime fallout, we're still faced with 
slower growth in 2008 than people had expected," said Angus 
Gluskie, portfolio manager at White Funds Management. 
    Monday    - Oct housing finance, 0030 GMT 
              - Perpetual <PPT.AX> business/strategy briefing 
    Tuesday   - SP AusNet <SPN.AX> securityholders vote on 
                Alinta acquisition 
              - Q3 NAB business survey, 0030 GMT 
    Wednesday - Dec consumer sentiment, 2330 GMT 
    Thursday  - Nov employment data, 0030 GMT 
              - AGM: Westpac Banking Corp <WBC.AX>, 0230 GMT 
    -- 
 ** IN TAIWAN (for Taiwan report, see [.TW]) 
    Further gains are seen for stocks, although the market is 
seen capped at the 9,000 level. 
    "The U.S. market has stabilised from the subprime turmoil 
recently. That's certainly positive for Taiwan stocks," said 
Kevin Li, a vice president of Shin Kong Securities Investment 
with T$60 billion ($1.9 billion) client assets under management. 
    Monday - Infineon <IFXGn.DE> n/conf in Taipei 
    Friday - Mainland Affairs Council symposium on new measures 
             for Taiwan investors in China 
     -- 
 ** IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (for SE Asia report, see [.SO]) 
    Regional stock markets are set to remain supported with 
investors comforted by U.S. moves to address the housing problems 
and ahead of the Fed's rate decision. 
    "Buying interest in regional stocks should continue next week 
amid expectations that the U.S. FOMC meeting should cut interest 
rates by at least 25 basis points," Thanachart Securities 
strategist Pichai Lertsupongkit said. 
    Monday   - Thai market closed for public holiday 
             - Sept Philippine foreign direct investments data 
    Thursday - Soon Lian Holdings debuts in Singapore 
             - Nov Thai consumer confidence survey 
             - Oct Philippine exports data 
             - Philippine central bank to release highlights of 
               monetary board meeting 
    Friday   - KTL Global debuts in Singapore 
             - Supreme Administrative Court announces verdict on 
               closely-watched case seeking to delist PTT 
               <PTT.BK>, Thailand's biggest listed company. 
    -- 
 ** IN SOUTH ASIA (for Mumbai report, see [.BO]) 
    India's main stock index could climb to a new high if the Fed 
surprised with an aggressive 50
						
						
  Source:   

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