By Ian Chua
HONG KONG, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Asian stocks should push higher
in the coming week as investors fret less over the outlook for
the U.S. economy, with all eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve's
policy meeting on Tuesday where markets are pricing in a
quarter-point rate cut.
"To some extent, the 25 basis point rate cut is already
priced into the markets, but we're still in the recovery phase
for Asian markets after the sharp decline in November," said
Hirokazu Yuihama, regional strategist at Daiwa Institute of
Research.
Yuihama said rate-sensitive markets such as Hong Kong and
Singapore will benefit most from lower U.S. rates, but Taiwan,
which is heavily dependent on U.S. demand for its products, may
suffer in the next couple of months as the U.S. economy slows.
For the first week of December, MSCI's measure of Asia
Pacific stocks excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> rose nearly 2
percent, rebounding from an 8.4 percent slump in November.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday showed a gain of
94,000 jobs in November, after an increase of 166,000 payrolls in
October, in line with expectations.
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FACTORS TO WATCH (for week starting Dec. 10)
** For Asian company earnings, see [ASIA/EQTY]
** Key U.S. earnings/data (for Wall Street report, see [.N])
Tuesday - Fed policy meeting/outcome
Wednesday - Nov import/export prices; Oct int'l trade
Thursday - Earnings: Lehman Brothers <LEH.N> Q4
- Nov retail sales, producer prices, Oct business
inventories
Friday - Nov consumer prices, real earnings, industrial
output
--
** IN JAPAN (for Tokyo report, see [.T])
Stocks are seen extending gains as worries about the U.S.
economy continue to wane.
"The market will likely be relatively strong as the subprime
problems are calming down," said Yosuke Shimizu, head of
investment centre at Monex Inc. "The Nikkei's downside will
likely cement around 15,800."
Investors will likely pick up high-tech exporters, encouraged
by a softening yen, and beaten-down issues such as trading
houses, he said, adding the Nikkei <.N225> should move between
15,800 and 16,500.
Monday - October machinery orders data
- Nov money supply/bank lending data
Tuesday - Nov consumer confidence
Wednesday - Nov corporate goods price index (CGPI)
- October current account
Thursday - Revised Oct industrial output
- Revised retail sales for October
Friday - BOJ's December tankan survey
--
** IN KOREA (for Seoul report, see [.KS])
Analysts expect the KOSPI to drift sideways after a two-week
rebound, with investors holding off taking new positions ahead of
the Dec. 19 presidential election and persistent worries about
the U.S. economy.
"The recent two-week advance had reflected expectations for a
U.S. interest rate cut and government steps on mortgage
borrowers, but no one believes the U.S. economy is doing well,"
said Kim Hak-kyoon, an analyst of Korea Investment & Securities.
Sunday - November producer price index
Tuesday - Deadline for submission of letters of intent for
a stake in Korea Express <000120.KS>
Wednesday - Nov unemployment rate
Thursday - Korea Exchange Bank <004940.KS> n/conf
--
** IN HONG KONG (for Hong Kong report, see [.HK])
Many analysts are betting Hong Kong's accelerating momentum
could put the market above a 30,000 resistance level. Investors
are likely to drive shares up before the Fed meeting, they say,
then cash in afterwards.
"Quite a lot of news has already been factored in," said
Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Brokerage. "There
could be a bit of profit-taking to be had."
Monday - Dongyue Group Ltd <0189.HK> trading debut
Wednesday - China Sunshine Paper <2002.HK> debuts
Friday - Anton Oilfield Services Group <3337.HK> and Bio
Beauty Group <3332.HK> debut
--
** IN CHINA (for China report, see [.SS]
The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> is likely to hover
around current levels, with confidence slowly returning as the
market recovers from a drubbing in November.
"The index is establishing a bottom at around 4,800 points
but a strong rally is not sustainable," said Zhang Yang, analyst
at Oriental Securities Co.
Monday - Nov producer price index
- 18th U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and
Trade
Tuesday - Nov consumer price index
- Nov trade data (provisional)
Wednesday - Nov retail sales
- U.S. Treasury Sec Henry Paulson leads delegation
for 2 days of talks under U.S.-China strategic
economic dialogue
Thursday - Nov industrial output data
Friday - Nov fixed-asset investment data
--
** IN AUSTRALIA/NZ (for Sydney/Wellington report, see [.AX])
Australian shares may extend their uptrend, buoyed by
expectations of a U.S. rate cut, though gains are likely to be
tentative given persistent uncertainties about the health of the
U.S. economy.
"People will soon see that despite the fact the Fed is
cutting rates and that the government is promoting remedies to
mitigate damage from the subprime fallout, we're still faced with
slower growth in 2008 than people had expected," said Angus
Gluskie, portfolio manager at White Funds Management.
Monday - Oct housing finance, 0030 GMT
- Perpetual <PPT.AX> business/strategy briefing
Tuesday - SP AusNet <SPN.AX> securityholders vote on
Alinta acquisition
- Q3 NAB business survey, 0030 GMT
Wednesday - Dec consumer sentiment, 2330 GMT
Thursday - Nov employment data, 0030 GMT
- AGM: Westpac Banking Corp <WBC.AX>, 0230 GMT
--
** IN TAIWAN (for Taiwan report, see [.TW])
Further gains are seen for stocks, although the market is
seen capped at the 9,000 level.
"The U.S. market has stabilised from the subprime turmoil
recently. That's certainly positive for Taiwan stocks," said
Kevin Li, a vice president of Shin Kong Securities Investment
with T$60 billion ($1.9 billion) client assets under management.
Monday - Infineon <IFXGn.DE> n/conf in Taipei
Friday - Mainland Affairs Council symposium on new measures
for Taiwan investors in China
--
** IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (for SE Asia report, see [.SO])
Regional stock markets are set to remain supported with
investors comforted by U.S. moves to address the housing problems
and ahead of the Fed's rate decision.
"Buying interest in regional stocks should continue next week
amid expectations that the U.S. FOMC meeting should cut interest
rates by at least 25 basis points," Thanachart Securities
strategist Pichai Lertsupongkit said.
Monday - Thai market closed for public holiday
- Sept Philippine foreign direct investments data
Thursday - Soon Lian Holdings debuts in Singapore
- Nov Thai consumer confidence survey
- Oct Philippine exports data
- Philippine central bank to release highlights of
monetary board meeting
Friday - KTL Global debuts in Singapore
- Supreme Administrative Court announces verdict on
closely-watched case seeking to delist PTT
<PTT.BK>, Thailand's biggest listed company.
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** IN SOUTH ASIA (for Mumbai report, see [.BO])
India's main stock index could climb to a new high if the Fed
surprised with an aggressive 50