Mumbai - The Indian vegetable oilseed and oil futures opened mixed, with only soy oil trading positively, supported by the moderately positive signals from the global markets. However, the fact that mustard acreage shift may not be as acute as expected, dull domestic demand and lack of conviction among players to sustain gains on a daily basis is limiting the gains.

US soy oil has closed overnight at new contract highs. Malaysian palm oil has closed marginally higher in the morning session. Crude oil at NYMEX has come down from $ 99 a barrel level, but is trading positively in after-hours trading. However, as CBOT is closed today for Thanksgiving holiday, range-bound trading and low volumes are being witnessed in all the markets.

Indian markets had earlier anticipated an acute shift in mustard seed acreage to wheat and had attributed this reason for pushing up its prices sharply since the beginning of October. The prices of mustard are currently around 10% higher than end-September levels. Now, confirmation that the shift will not be as acute as expected is weakening the domestic sentiments.

The demand in the Indian physical markets for edible oils is also dull, which is preventing any major surge in the physical markets. This is also limiting the gains in the futures market. However, the strong export demand for soymeal is supporting the soybean market.

Prominent industry expert, Mr. Davish Jain has said that India has already contracted to sell 2 million tonnes of soymeal from the next crop. Actual exports are expected to pick up sharply from next month onwards. The entire year [Oct Sep] exports are expected to be around 4 million tonnes against last years 3.7 million tonnes.

The most active January soybean contract at National Commodity Derivatives Exchange [NCDEX] at 10.45 hours is trading higher at Rs 1,782.00 [- 1.00] per 100 kg with 15,950 tonnes traded.

At NCDEX the soy oil December contract is trading higher at Rs. 523.20 [+ 0.75] per 10 kg with 3,590 tonnes traded. The December contract at the National Board of Trade [NBOT] is up at 522.40 [+ 1.00], while the same month contract at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd [MCX] is trading higher at Rs. 522.40 [+ 0.85] per 10 kg with 1,990 tonnes traded.

Crude Palm Oil [CPO] contract at the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives [BMD] has ended the morning session marginally up, supported by the overnight gains in US soy oil. US crude oil is also trading higher currently in after-hours trading. The sustained strong demand despite the record-high prices is also pushing the sellers to quote higher prices.

The benchmark February 08 contract has ended the morning session higher at MYR 2,977.00 [+ 7.00] a tonne with 2,085 lots traded. [MYR = Malaysian Ringitt]

Soy complex at the Chicago Board of Trade [CBOT] closed mixed on Wednesday night with only soy oil managing to close positively. Soy oil closed at new contract highs, despite the losses in crude oil as a result of the strong demand in the cash market. Soybean and meal were affected by pre-Thanksgiving holiday profit-booking and lack of fresh buying.

January soybeans settled 3 cents lower at $10.84 and March soybeans ended 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.01 1/4. March soy meal settled $2.60 lower at $287.40 per short ton. December soy oil finished 23 points higher at 45.95 cents per pound.

CBOT is closed today for Thanksgiving holiday.

MUSTARD SEED

Mustard seed futures is trading lower as heavy selling is expected to continue today also in the futures and physical markets. The fact that the shift to wheat will not be as acute as expected is leading to liquidation of positions in both the physical and futures markets. The demand was also very dull.

The sowing of mustard has improved, but is still significantly lagging behind previous years acreage. The sowing of wheat is also lagging behind previous years figures. The poor moisture in the soil is cited to be the major cause for the lagging sowing.

As per the latest Government reports, as on 16th November, mustard has been sown in 3.51 million hectares, against 5.276 million hectares covered at the corresponding time in 2006 and 5.59 covered in 2005. The sowing is lagging in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, which are the major producers.

Most active mustard seed December futures on NCDEX is trading lower at Rs. 482.50 [- 0.40] per 20 kg with 5,160 tonnes traded.

The regional platforms is trading lower with the active February 08 contract at Sirsa and Hapur quoting at Rs 438.40 [- 0.10] and Rs 497.40 [- 1.00] per 20 kg respectively.

CASTOR SEED