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Feb 3 2007 10:43AM
3rd Feb 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur remained stable amidst steady arrivals as well as offtake. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming weeks. Talks of prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. Acreage under chilli this year is estimated to have doubled. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain moderately bearish to steady in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops
Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
5500-6500
5800-6400
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
6100-7000
6400-7000
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous settlement. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic is moving indecisively in the normal region. MACD is also moving flat in the positive territory. Red chillies futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
4500-4525
4450
4425
4575
4300
4365
4490
4605
4680
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets recovered back from previous day’s slump. It was offered at a higher price by Rs. 200 per quintal in Kochi amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Spot markets have witnessed a sharp rally in the recent past owing to improved demand scenario. India has exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent (IPC estimates) and 3.46 per cent growth in global consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in the global market in near future. Domestic scenario could well match the global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12400
12200
+200
Ungarbled
Kochi
11800
11600
+200
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. The %K-line has made a bearish crossover with the %D-line and moving downward in the overbought region. MACD is also moving downwards in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume as well as open interest has declined. Black pepper futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some late downward movements.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Buy
12650
13000
13075
12775
12320
12530
12899
13385
13600
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets remained on an average bearish. It was quoted lower amidst steady offtake. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market and consequently pressurising the prices. Production of jeera is expected at the lower side this year. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of this month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-Dec 2006. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future supported by its strong fundamentals.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market
Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1700-1750
1710-1760
-10
Ganesh
Unjha
1750-1800
1760-1810
-10
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1850-1870
1860-1880
-10
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting weak prices in short-tern. Volume has increased, while open interest has decline as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some downward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Buy
9225-9240
9300
9325
9175
9065
9135
9238
9345
9420
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric markets witnessed a mixed trend. It was offered in the previous price range in Nizamabad amidst slightly lower arrivals. However, in Erode finger variety was quoted at a lower price amidst higher arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are coming in the markets with mixed quality, wherein the inferior ones are fetching lower prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming days that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric markets are likely to remain bearish on a better crop harvest outlook for the season.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
2000
2000
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
1900
1900
-
Finger
Erode
2050-2150
2100-2200
-
Gattha
Erode
2000-2100
2000-2100
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed above the 18-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has declined. Turmeric futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some downwards movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Buy
2030
2045
2050
2020
1998
2015
2031
2055
2070
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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