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Sep 4 2007 9:38AM
Black Pepper, Jeera, Red Chillies and Turmeric
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets extended previous weakness further. It was quoted lower by Rs. 100 per quintal in benchmark Kochi market amid no arrivals as well as offtake. Traders reported weak demand as the major reason behind the decline in pepper prices at physical markets. Moreover, weakness in pepper futures counter has also weighed on the physical markets. Despite a global supply shortage, global pepper prices have declined considerably eyeing the new harvest of Indonesia and Brazil. However, some reports suggest that almost half of the Indonesian crop has already been harvested and sold to local stockists, exporters. This may in turn result into completing harvest within a short period of time, thus capping the recent downtrend in global prices.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Global supply shortage is estimated at 47,500 tonnes in 2007
Bulls
2.
Vietnam pepper output estimated lower by 10-20 per cent in 2007
Bulls
3.
Weak domestic and overseas demand
Bears
4.
Sellers active at higher price levels
Bears
5.
Harvesting going on in Indonesia, Brazil
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centre
Grade
03.09.07
01.09.07
Change
Kochi
Garbled
12500
12600
-100
Ungarbled
11900
12000
-100
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Close below the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA is suggesting a bearish trend in the market. 14-day RSI is in neutral regions, leaving scope for further downtrend. MACD is moving upwards in negative territory. Volume as well as open interest has declined. Pepper futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Rain/thundershowers are likely over few places in growing regions. It would be beneficial for the growth of newly planted and old vines.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Oct
Sell
12200-12250
12000
11950
12400
11600
11825
12100
12445
12645
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Domestic jeera markets remain on an average stable during Monday’s trade. It was offered in a mostly unchanged price range in benchmark Unjha markets amid steady arrivals as well as offtake. Traders reported presence of some demand at lower price levels as a major supportive feature for the market. Spillover weakness from jeera futures counter has pressurised the physical market prices. Though the long-term fundamentals for jeera remain firm with the supply shortage, both domestically as well as globally, the near-term outlook seems gloomy until demand improves considerably. Traders are now eyeing the coming festival season for any improvement in demand.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Lower domestic and global production
Bulls
2.
Exports down 51% in quantity and 24% in value terms during April-June 2007
Bears
3.
Lack of buying support at the physical market
Bears
4.
Moderate domestic, overseas demand
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centre
Grade
03.09.07
01.09.07
Change
Unjha
FAQ New
2120-2200
2140-2200
-
Ganesh
2320-2360
2320-2360
-
Machine-cleaned
2400-2540
2400-2540
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Prices closed below the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, indicating a bearish trend in the market. 14-day RSI is moving downwards in the oversold region again, hinting further downtrend. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Jeera futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over South Gujarat.
Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over the rest region outside West Rajasthan where it may be isolated. Heavy rainfall may limit regular trading activity.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Oct
Sell
10890-10925
10760
10725
11025
10500
10642
10815
11042
11169
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Domestic chilli prices at the major spot market continued the steady movement of previous week. Prices remained in the range of Rs.4000-4500 per quintal. Out of total arrivals of 30000 bags around 15000 bags were sold. Local demand is steady and is likely to remain same in the days ahead. Regular demand from Bangladesh, Malaysia and Singapore is supportive. Out of the total arrivals around 4000-6000 bags comprised of export demand. Crop from Madhya Pradesh is likely to hit the market form mid October. Prices are likely to remain rangebound to slightly firm in anticipation of good buying at lower levels.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Chilli acreage in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is likely to go up
Bears
2.
Higher stock levels of nearly 38-40 lakh bags at the cold storages
Bears
3.
Good export orders from Bangladesh
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centre
Grade
03.09.07
01.09.07
Change
Guntur
LCA 334
4000-4500
Closed
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern indicates firm opening, and thereafter active buying coming in. Poor volumes did not support the upmove in prices. 9-day RSI is neutral and moving upwards leaving scope for upmove in prices. MACD remains indecisive in positive territory supporting the firm trend. Red chillies futures are likely to open firm and see an early uptrend. There is possibility of slight weakness on profit booking towards the closing session.
WEATHER
Rain / thundershower are likely at Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka. Rainfall during the initial growing stage is beneficial for the crop.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Oct
Buy
4420-4430
4468
4493
4391
4127
4228
4420
4544
4620
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric prices at the domestic spot market were quoted steady to marginally firm by Rs.25 per quintal at the major spot markets. At Nizamabad the prices were up at Rs.2025 per quintal amidst steady arrival and offtake. At Erode the price remained unchanged at Rs. 2050-2100 amidst marginally low arrivals. Domestic demand for the commodity is likely gain after Janmashtami from next week onwards. Export demand is steady for Desi Cudappa variety from Japan as well Gulf demand is active for Nizamabad variety. Prices for the commodity is likely to remain range bound to marginally firm in the coming days.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Weak domestic demand
Bears
2.
Lower acreage due to fall in prices during 2006-07 season
Bulls
3.
Good export demand in the market
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centre
Grade
03.09.07
01.09.07
Change
Nizamabad
Finger
2025
Closed
-
Gattha
1950
-
-
Erode
Finger
2050-2100
Closed
-
Gattha
2000-2025
-
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick is indicating firm opening and thereafter selling pressure in the market. Low volumes did support the fall in the prices. Prices closed below the 9-day and 18-day EMAs supportive to bears in the market. MACD is falling in the negative zone supportive to the weak trend, while RSI is in the neutral region. Turmeric is likley to open weak followed by a weakness initially and thereafter a small upmove towards the close.
WEATHER
Rain / Thundershower are likely at coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Maharashtra. Rains at present are beneficial for the crop.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Oct
Sell
2120-2122
2111
2104
2128
2076
2094
2118
2149
2165
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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