Sep 5 2007 9:31AM
Balck Pepper, Jeera, Red Chilies and Turmeric
| BLACK PEPPER | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Black pepper markets at Kochi were closed on “Janmashtami”. Weak domestic and overseas demand has resulted in declining pepper prices. Moreover, the recent down trend in the pepper futures are also seen weighing down on the spot markets. Despite a global supply shortage, global pepper prices have declined considerably eyeing the new harvest in Indonesia and Brazil. However, some reports suggest that almost half of the Indonesian crop has already been harvested and sold to local stockists and exporters. This may in turn result in completing the harvest ahead of schedule, thus capping the recent downtrend in global prices. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Global supply shortage is estimated at 47,500 tonnes in 2007 | Bulls | | 2. | Vietnam pepper output estimated lower by 10-20 per cent in 2007 | Bulls | | 3. | Weak domestic and overseas demand | Bears | | 4. | Sellers active at higher price levels | Bears | | 5. | Harvesting going on in Indonesia, Brazil | Bears | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Centre | Grade | 04.09.07 | 03.09.07 | Change | | Kochi | Garbled | Closed | 12600 | - | | Ungarbled | Closed | 12000 | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | A long hollow candle is formed in the charts, with some initial selling activity. Prices closed above the 9-day EMA. MACD is rising in the negative zone, while RSI and Stochastic are rising sharply in the neutral region. Overall, the technicals indicate a firm market in the short term. However, a close below the 18-day EMA points towards a bearish posture in the intermediate term. Black pepper is likely to trade firm in the next trading session, with probability of some downward movement late in the session. | | | | WEATHER | | Rain/thundershowers are likely over few places in growing regions. It would be beneficial for the growth of newly planted and old vines. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Oct | Buy | 12500–12550 | 12700 | 12750 | 12350 | 11690 | 11980 | 12579 | 12955 | 13347 | |
| | | JEERA (CUMIN) | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Jeera benchmark market at Unjha remained closed due to Janmaashtami celebrations all India. According to trade sources export orders from European countries, Singapore and Bangladesh are flowing in and it is reported that presence of some demand at lower price levels is also a major supportive feature for the market. Though the long-term fundamentals for jeera remain firm with the supply shortage, both domestically as well as globally, the near-term outlook seems gloomy until demand improves considerably. Traders are now eyeing the coming festival season for any improvement in demand. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Lower domestic and global production | Bulls | | 2. | Exports down 51% in quantity and 24% in value terms during April-June 2007 | Bears | | 3. | Lack of buying support at the physical market | Bears | | 4. | Moderate domestic, overseas demand | Bears | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Centre | Grade | 04.09.07 | 03.09.07 | Change | | Unjha | FAQ New | Closed | 2120-2200 | - | | Ganesh | Closed | 2320-2360 | - | | Machine-cleaned | Closed | 2400-2520 | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Prices closed below the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, indicating a bearish trend in the market. 14-day RSI is moving downwards in the oversold region again, hinting further downtrend. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Jeera futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session. | | | | WEATHER | | Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Gujarat. Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over the rest region outside West Rajasthan where it may be isolated. Heavy rainfall may limit regular trading activity. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Oct | Buy | 10950-10975 | 11031 | 11076 | 10918 | 10598 | 10721 | 10975 | 11390 | 11552 | | | | |
| | | RED CHILLIES | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Chilli market at Guntur remained closed due to celebrations of Janmaashtami festival over India. Local demand is steady and is likely to remain same in the days ahead. Regular demand from Bangladesh, Malaysia and Singapore is active. Out of the total arrivals around 4000-6000 bags went towards meeting export demand. Crop from Madhya Pradesh is likely to hit the market form mid October. Prices are likely to trade rangebound to slightly firm in anticipation of good export demand. However the long term fundamental of the commodity is likely to remain bearish due to rise in acreage as well as ample stock in the market. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Chilli acreage in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is likely to go up | Bears | | 2. | Higher stock levels of nearly 38-40 lakh bags at the cold storages | Bears | | 3. | Good export orders from Bangladesh | Bulls | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Centre | Grade | 04.09.07 | 03.09.07 | Change | | Guntur | LCA 334 | Closed | 4000-4500 | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Candlestick pattern indicates firm opening, and thereafter active buying coming in. Marginal gain in volumes supported the upmove in prices. 9-day RSI is neutral and moving upwards leaving scope for upmove in prices. MACD remains indecisive in positive territory supporting the firm trend. Red chillies futures are likely to trade with upward bias in the coming trading session, with possibility of late dip due to profit-booking. | | | | WEATHER | | Rain / thundershower are likely at region outside Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka. Rainfall during the initial growing stage is beneficial for the crop. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Oct | Buy | 4432-4442 | 4469 | 4481 | 4414 | 4199 | 4265 | 4440 | 4544 | 4658 | |
| | | TURMERIC | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | All the domestic Turmeric spot markets remained closed due to Janmaashtami celebrations. Domestic demand is likely gain momentum from next week onwards. Stockists are likely to buy the commodity in anticipation of fall in acreage. Export demand is steady for Desi Cudappa variety from Japan as well Gulf demand is brisk for Nizamabad variety. Falling prices at the futures counter is also influencing the physical markets. Prices for the commodity are likely to gain marginally and trade range bound to slightly weak during the week. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Weak domestic demand | Bears | | 2. | Lower acreage due to fall in prices during 2006-07 season | Bulls | | 3. | Good export demand in the market | Bulls | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Centre | Grade | 04.09.07 | 02.09.07 | Change | | Nizamabad | Finger | Closed | 2025 | - | | Gattha | - | 1950 | - | | Erode | Finger | Closed | 2050-2100 | - | | Gattha | - | 2000-2025 | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Candlestick is indicating firm opening and initial weakness in the market. Good volumes supported the fall in prices. Prices closed below the 9-day and 18-day EMAs supportive to bears in the market. MACD is supportive to the weak trend, while RSI is in the neutral region and moving marginally downward, leaving scope for further fall in prices. Turmeric is likely to trade lower after a steady to slightly firm opening, with possibility of late recovery due to buying at lower levels. | | | | WEATHER | | Rain / Thundershower are likely at coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and outside Andhra Pradesh where as it is likely to be isolated at Tamil Nadu. Rains at present are beneficial for the crop. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Oct | Sell | 2115-2117 | 2103 | 2092 | 2124 | 2072 | 2087 | 2115 | 2146 | 2165 | | | | | DISCLAIMER This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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