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Feb 5 2007 10:54AM
5th Feb 2007 Oil Seeds Report

 
REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS  
Today, trade activities remained weak as compared to other days during the week in the domestic markets. News of Government considering excise duty on refined soy oil had mild bullish impact. In Delhi, resumption of sealing activities discouraged market movement while in Mumbai soy oil traded range bound on steady demand and supply. Firm overnight CBOT and sharp increased CIF prices support bullish tone domestically. Crude soy oil CIF rates quoted at yesterday prices of $685/tonne against earlier $674/tonne for February shipment on Saturday.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
 Pressure Point
Favours
1.
 Sluggish domestic demand Bears
2.
 Bullish CBOT Bulls
3.
 Government is considering levy of excise duty on refined soy oil Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
443
443
0
Refined
Indore
430
425
+5
Refined
Kota
436
434
+2
Refined
Rajkot
453
452
+1
 
TECHNICALS
Refined soy oil charts show some recovery. The price closed just above the 9-day EMA but is rising in negative territory while the stochastic is also moving upward from oversold region. Volume declined while open interest increased. The prices are not yet out of the downtrend and selling on rallies might be offer rewards.
 
WEATHER
Mainly clear weather in most of soybeans growing areas (except West Rajasthan) would facilitate arrivals
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb SELL 466
464
463
468
457
460
465.2
470
473







SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Soybean markets across Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra moved up on bullish CBOT. Steady offtake was reported from solvent units to accumulate stocks for lean season. Arrivals in Maharashtra improved by 10,000-15,000 bags. Resellers were also active in releasing beans in the market. Following routine activity in domestic markets, prices are expected to react to soymeal export/crushing parity and overseas advices from CBOT and BMD during the coming week.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
 Pressure Point
Favours
1.
 Arrivals improved in Maharashtra Bears
2.
 Bullish CBOT Bulls
3.
 Escalated soy oil prices domestically Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1430-1450
1420-1445
+10
Indore
Mandi
1390-1410
1370-1390
+20
Maharashtra
Plant
1480
1460-1465
+20
Maharashtra
Mandi
1440-1460
1400-1420
+40
 
TECHNICALS

Soybean charts are showing some improvement in the market sentiments. The prices closed above EMAs, which shows firmness is coming back in the market. Stochastic has made bullish crossover. MACD is also showing some increase in bullish momentum. The prices are likely to recover further.

 
WEATHER

Mainly dry weather (except forecast of isolated rainfall in West Rajasthan) in major growing areas would facilitate beans arrivals.

   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Jan BUY 1451 1462
1468
 1444 1443 1438 1455 1464 1473







MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS  
NAFED has raised mustard seeds prices on third consecutive day uniformly in all the centres and the new rates stood at Rs 1760/qtl against previous rate of Rs. 1745/qtl for Jaipur region and for rest of the centres it remained at Rs 1710/qtl against yesterday’s Rs. 1695/qtl [For seeds stocked during 2005-06 season]. Arrivals improved in Rajasthan region, as stockists also joined Nafed in releasing seeds, ahead of harvest which is expected to commence from mid February 2007.  
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
 Pressure Point
Favours
1.
 NAFED further raised mustard seed prices by Rs. 15 uniformly in all the centres Bulls
2.
 Good weather condition in Kota region Bears
3.
 Millers/crusher maintained their regular offtake Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
 03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1870-1875
 1860
+10
Alwar
Conditioned
1770-1780
1750-1760
      +30
Delhi
Conditioned
1910-1915
      1905
+5
 
TECHNICALS
Mustard charts are showing tentativeness at higher levels, however the prices managed to close above short term EMA, which shows firmness is intact. Stochastic is positive in neutral region. MACD is also rising in negative region, which suggests decrease in bearish momentum. The prices are likely to show volatile movements.
 
WEATHER

The forecast of transient isolated rainfall in West Rajasthan would affect maturing mustard crop. 

   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
BUY
372
376
--
370
370
368
373.4
376
378
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).

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Equities: Trading through Reliance Securities Limited | NSE SEBI Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 231234833 | BSE SEBI
Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 011234839 | NSE SEBI Registration Number Derivatives :- INF 231234833 Commodities : Trading through Reliance Commodities Limited | MCX member code: 29030 | NCDEX member code: NCDEX-CO-05-00647|
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