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Commodity
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Pulses
Spices
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Aug 1 2007 10:23AM
Deterioration in quality
CHANA
FUNDAMENTALS
The arrivals in Delhi market were slightly better at 25-30 motors against the previous day’s arrivals of 20-25 motors. Spot prices improved by Rs 5-55 at different centres, recovering from recent declines. Subdued demand and some quality issues had hit the prices recently. Further, continued imports of cheaper alternatives like peas are also making the demand price-sensitive. Healthy production this year along with timely imports by government have belied chana stockists hopes for windfall profits in the off-season. At the time of harvest many of the stockists are believed to have stored Chana at higher levels. Though shortage of other pulses has kept the prices of Chana slightly higher than the normal so far, the scope of prices soaring like last year is now remote. Further, the problem of early deterioration of quality is putting pressure on the stockists for speedy liquidation of the poor quality Chana, which might keep the prices under pressure. Forthcoming festival season demand kindles hope for the bulls, but the upside seems limited.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Govt. importing pulses through PSUs
Bears
2.
Exch. stocks reached 42,282 tonnes.
Bears
3.
Deterioration in quality (
dank
) in Chana
Bears
4.
Demand to improve ahead of festivals
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.07.07
30.07.07
Change
Rajasthan Desi
Delhi
2300
2290
+10
Kantewala
Indore
2330
2325
+5
Desi
Bikaner
2180
2150
+30
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows a dark marubozu, which is an indication of weakness. The medium-term trend-following indicators including EMAs and MACD continue to remain weak. The stochastic & RSI remain oversold but only RSI shows mild signs of emerging. The prices are likely to remain volatile with bearish bias.
WEATHER
Continuing weak phase in monsoon is threatening kharif pulses output.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Aug
Sell
< 2225
2205
2198
2235
2170
2185
2223
2271
2290
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