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Agri Commentary
Feb 6 2007 4:30PM
6th Feb 2007 Agri Report

 

    SUGAR

FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot prices of sugar continue to decline in the majority of markets like Muzaffarnagar, Delhi and Kolkata amidst weak demand and improved supply from mills. Internationally, white sugar prices have recovered up to $341 a tonne, after dipping to $320 a tonne. The recovery was due to decline in sugar supply from the European Union. Increasing global prices have brightened domestic sugar industry hopes for export. The government has already cleared export release orders of 2.15 lakh tonnes, of which 1.65 lakh tonne is under ALS and 50,000 tonnes under open general license. Applications of about 30,000-40,000 tonnes of sugar export are yet to be cleared. However, the global prices of sugar are expected to remain between $320-340/ tonne and would not rise further, as the supplies from Brazil would hit global markets in March.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Release of 13 lakh tonnes of free sale quota for Feb'07 Bears
3.
Likely increase in Excise duty Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
  Sugar M  
Delhi
1555-1585
1565-1595
-10
 Sugar S
Delhi
1540-1570
1550-1580
-10
 Mill Delivery
Delhi
1470-1500
1480-1510
-10
 
TECHNICALS
NCDEX February sugar has fallen below important supports at the 1560 levels, indicating that further selling pressure is likely. Next support might come around the psychological 1550 level. The MACD, RSI and Stochastic favour the bears. Market is expected to trade range bound following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb SELL >1561
1554
1551
1565
1540
1545
1557
1571
1576







    WHEAT

FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices traded mixed in domestic markets. However, poor demand amidst steady arrivals is mainly underpinning majority of spot markets sentiments. Increased fresh arrivals in Gujarat markets led to decline in prices. Government’s decision to release up to 4 lakh tonnes of wheat under the Open Market Sale Scheme in February and March, 2007 is supporting bearish tone. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills quoted slightly firm at Rs.1040-1045/qtl on steady arrivals around 3,000-4000 bags. The lower wheat product demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers from purchasing wheat from open market.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Wheat acreage has been increased by over 17.5 lakh hectare as on 01.02.2007   Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat and wheat products at higher price levels Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1040-1045
1040
+5
Mill quality
Khanna
1055-1060
1055-1062
-2
Mill quality
Indore
1040-1046
1050-1055
-9
Mill quality
Kanpur
1030-1035
1025-1030
      +5
 
TECHNICALS

Candlesticks show buying interest at lower price levels. Prices closed below 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in normal region and falling after a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative territory and moving down. Volume and Open Interest decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to firm opening..

 
WEATHER

The temperature at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.

   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb SELL <1023 1014
1010
1028 1005 1010 1020.8 1027 1032







GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
The guar spot markets witnessed steady sentiment during Monday's trade, when the spot prices of guar seed and guar gum stayed unchanged in majority of markets on subdued demand, while eased slightly in Nokha on weak demand. Diversion of overseas demand to Pakistan has also affected the spot market sentiment, as the Pakistan is quoting at Rs. 4200 per qtl, lower by Rs. 600 against the Indian prices for Guar gum. The arrivals at the major physical markets are reported to be steady at around 15-16,000 bags. Arrivals increased from 800 to 1100 bags in Bikaner, while it declined from 400 to 200 bags in Nokha. Moreover, the weakness in the futures market, also affected the spot market sentiments..
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1835
1835
-
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1950
1950
          -
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4888
4888
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern shows some indecision. Stochastic is in normal region and moving slightly upwards MACD is in negative region and moving upwards. Closing price is below 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bullish following a weak opening.
 
WEATHER

Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete. 

   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
BUY
>1987
2012
2022
1975
1965
1975
1990
2022
2030
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
BUY
>4920
4980
5010
4890
4860
4890
4936
5020
5040
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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