Feb 6 2007 4:30PM
6th Feb 2007 Agri Report
| SUGAR | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Spot prices of sugar continue to decline in the majority of markets like Muzaffarnagar, Delhi and Kolkata amidst weak demand and improved supply from mills. Internationally, white sugar prices have recovered up to $341 a tonne, after dipping to $320 a tonne. The recovery was due to decline in sugar supply from the European Union. Increasing global prices have brightened domestic sugar industry hopes for export. The government has already cleared export release orders of 2.15 lakh tonnes, of which 1.65 lakh tonne is under ALS and 50,000 tonnes under open general license. Applications of about 30,000-40,000 tonnes of sugar export are yet to be cleared. However, the global prices of sugar are expected to remain between $320-340/ tonne and would not rise further, as the supplies from Brazil would hit global markets in March. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Bumper production expected | Bears | | 2. | Weak physical demand | Bears | | 3. | Release of 13 lakh tonnes of free sale quota for Feb'07 | Bears | | 3. | Likely increase in Excise duty | Bulls | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Center | 05.02.07 | 03.02.07 | Change | | Sugar M | Delhi | 1555-1585 | 1565-1595 | | | Sugar S | Delhi | 1540-1570 | 1550-1580 | | | Mill Delivery | Delhi | 1470-1500 | 1480-1510 | | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | NCDEX February sugar has fallen below important supports at the 1560 levels, indicating that further selling pressure is likely. Next support might come around the psychological 1550 level. The MACD, RSI and Stochastic favour the bears. Market is expected to trade range bound following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement | | | | WEATHER | | Weather is not a factor at the moment. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Feb | SELL | >1561 | 1554 | 1551 | 1565 | 1540 | 1545 | 1557 | 1571 | 1576 | | |
| | | WHEAT | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Wheat prices traded mixed in domestic markets. However, poor demand amidst steady arrivals is mainly underpinning majority of spot markets sentiments. Increased fresh arrivals in Gujarat markets led to decline in prices. Government’s decision to release up to 4 lakh tonnes of wheat under the Open Market Sale Scheme in February and March, 2007 is supporting bearish tone. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills quoted slightly firm at Rs.1040-1045/qtl on steady arrivals around 3,000-4000 bags. The lower wheat product demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers from purchasing wheat from open market. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Depleting stocks amidst mild demand | Bulls | | 2. | Wheat acreage has been increased by over 17.5 lakh hectare as on 01.02.2007 | Bears | | 3. | Poor demand for wheat and wheat products at higher price levels | Bears | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Centre | 05.02.07 | 03.02.07 | Change | | Mill quality | Delhi | 1040-1045 | 1040 | +5 | | Mill quality | Khanna | 1055-1060 | 1055-1062 | -2 | | Mill quality | Indore | 1040-1046 | 1050-1055 | -9 | | Mill quality | Kanpur | 1030-1035 | 1025-1030 | +5 | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | Candlesticks show buying interest at lower price levels. Prices closed below 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in normal region and falling after a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative territory and moving down. Volume and Open Interest decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to firm opening.. | | | | WEATHER | The temperature at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Feb | SELL | <1023 | 1014 | 1010 | 1028 | 1005 | 1010 | 1020.8 | 1027 | 1032 | | |
| | | GUAR COMPLEX | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | The guar spot markets witnessed steady sentiment during Monday's trade, when the spot prices of guar seed and guar gum stayed unchanged in majority of markets on subdued demand, while eased slightly in Nokha on weak demand. Diversion of overseas demand to Pakistan has also affected the spot market sentiment, as the Pakistan is quoting at Rs. 4200 per qtl, lower by Rs. 600 against the Indian prices for Guar gum. The arrivals at the major physical markets are reported to be steady at around 15-16,000 bags. Arrivals increased from 800 to 1100 bags in Bikaner, while it declined from 400 to 200 bags in Nokha. Moreover, the weakness in the futures market, also affected the spot market sentiments.. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Higher production this year | Bears | | 2. | Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels | Bulls | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Centre | 05.02.07 | 03.02.07 | Change | | Guar Seed | Bikaner | 1835 | | - | | Guar Seed | Jodhpur | 1950 | | - | | Guar Gum | Jodhpur | 4888 | | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Candlestick chart pattern shows some indecision. Stochastic is in normal region and moving slightly upwards MACD is in negative region and moving upwards. Closing price is below 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bullish following a weak opening. | | | | WEATHER | Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar. | BUY | >1987 | 2012 | 2022 | 1975 | 1965 | 1975 | 1990 | 2022 | 2030 | | NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar. | BUY | >4920 | 4980 | 5010 | 4890 | 4860 | 4890 | 4936 | 5020 | 5040 | | | | | | DISCLAIMER This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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