A Reliance Capital Company
Company Search
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
In a market that's growing at 400% per annum.
We offer
  • Lowest cost of trading
  • Trade till 11:30 in the night


Jan 27 2007 10:39AM
27th Jan 2007 Spices Report

RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS  
Red chillies market in Guntur remains bearish. It was offered at a lower price range amidst higher arrivals in the markets. Market sentiments have turned in favour of the bears as fresh crop arrivals started getting momentum at present. Arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming month and consequently adding to the bearishness. Talks of lower Chinese crop and prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export from the country has increased to Rs. 440 crore during April-December 2006. Acreage under chilli this year is estimated to have doubled. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain bearish in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Prospective export demand Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
5600-6200
5800-6400
-200
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
6200-6800
6400-7000
-200
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased as compared to previous settlement. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic and MACD are indicating further uptrend. Red chillies futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady and firm opening initially and downwards thereafter.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
4425
4350
4325
4475
4170
4275
4390
4480
4570






BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS  
Black pepper markets firmed up again. It was offered higher by Rs. 200 per quintal amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Traders reported improvement in domestic demand. Overseas enquiries are also reported after a while and traders are optimistic of prospective export demand given the lower price of Indian pepper. India exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent and 3.46 per cent growth in global consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in the global market in near future. Domestic scenario could well match global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
11900
11700
+200
Ungarbled
Kochi
11300
11100
+200
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving upwards and the %D-line has just entered the overbought region, hinting further uptrend. MACD is moving indecisively in the positive territory. Prices closed well above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume has increased, while open interest has declined. Black pepper futures are likely to trade upwards following a firm opening with possibility of late downward movements.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb BUY 12150 12275 12350 12050 11535 11850 12140 12515 12790






JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS  
Jeera markets remained firm. It was quoted higher amidst lower arrivals. Some fresh crop arrivals are reported in small quantity and are of inferior quality. Domestic production of jeera is expected at the lower side owing to reduced acreage under the crop this year. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of next month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Moreover, the present cold weather conditions are also seen beneficial for the crop growth. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future supported by its strong fundamentals.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006 Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1750-1800
1720-1770
+30
Ganesh
Unjha
1800-1850
1770-1820
+30
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1900-2025
1875-2000
+25
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic has made a bearish crossover in the normal region. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, hinting weakness. Prices closed above 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-tern. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of late downward movements.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
9200
9275
9300
9150
9105
9145
9235
9340
9390







TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS  
Turmeric markets remained steady to weak. It was offered in a lower price range in Erode markets amidst higher arrivals. Arrivals have started from the fresh harvest, though the quality of the same is reported to be inferior one with higher moisture contents and quantity is also not enough to make any significant impact on prices. Traders reported improved demand scenario against the price rise. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum during the later half of the month that would further pressurise the prices.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India Bulls 


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
Closed
Closed
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
Closed
Closed
-
Finger
Erode
2100-2200
2150-2250
-50
Gattha
Erode
2000-2100
2000-2100
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic are indicating possibility of a downward technical correction. MACD is also moving indecisively in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume as well as open interest has increased. Turmeric futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady opening with possibility of some upward movement early in the session.
 
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Sell
2075-2080
2050
2040
2100
2010
2035
2068
2090
2115
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


Reliance Disclaimer


Back
 
 
News
 
Research
 
Markets
 
Knowledge Center
 
Charting
 
Customer Service
 
Contact Us
 
Site Map
 

SEBI | BSE | NSE
Terms & Conditions | Disclaimer | Online Privacy | Trouble Logging in
Copyright© 2006. All rights Reserved. Reliance Money Limited
Equities: Trading through Reliance Securities Limited | NSE SEBI Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 231234833 | BSE SEBI
Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 011234839 | NSE SEBI Registration Number Derivatives :- INF 231234833 Commodities : Trading through Reliance Commodities Limited | MCX member code: 29030 | NCDEX member code: NCDEX-CO-05-00647|
NMCE member code: CL0120 Mutual Funds : Reliance Securities Limited | AMFI ARN No.29889
In case of any grievances please write to [email protected]