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Agri Commentary
Jan 29 2007 9:38AM
29th Jan 2007 Agri Report
SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS
Sugar spot market featured steady to subdued sentiments during Saturday’s trade in Delhi and Muzaffarnagar, whereas spot prices in Kolkata recovered amidst improved demand and normal supply. The Indonesian government has decided to import another 250,000 tonnes of sugar to fulfill the domestic deficit. Indian exporters are looking for fresh opportunity in Indonesia in view of the latest demand. Also the international sugar prices (Liffe) recovered from $ 330 to $336 a tonne.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected
Bears
2.
Weak physical demand
Bears
3.
Improved supply from mills
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1575-1625
1575-1625
-
Sugar S
Delhi
1560-1610
1560-1610
-
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1490-1540
1490-1540
-
TECHNICALS
On the NCDEX February charts, candlestick pattern indicates bearish sentiment. The MACD slightly favours the bulls, while RSI and Stochastic favour the bears. Prices closed below the 9 days EMA and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade downward following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement.
WEATHER
Weather is fine for harvesting of sugarcane crop and favours arrivals for crushing.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1592
1584
1580
1597
1570
1576
1588
1600
1608
WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS
Wheat prices declined in majority of domestic markets on higher arrivals amidst poor demand at higher price levels. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills quoted lower by Rs.10-20 at Rs.1060-1080/qtl on poor demand from roller flour millers. Arrivals increased sharply to 15,000 bags from 4000-5000 bags during Thursday. The arrivals are reported from Punjab, Haryana and U.P. Stockists are interested to liquidating their stocks in view of sluggish markets and better new crop outlook. The price of wheat product such as atta has also declined by Rs.15-18. The fresh arrivals of wheat are reported from Gujarat mandis. In Rajkot, the fresh arrivals reported to 700-750 bags per day and price declined by Rs.5-10 further to Rs.1100. Availability of imported wheat in South India also led to lack of demand in spot markets in North India.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand
Bulls
2.
Poor demand all over India amidst higher arrivals
Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products
Bears
4.
Higher acreage (281.135 L.ha. v/s 263.626L.ha.) on Jan 19, year-on-year
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1080
1080
-
Mill quality
Khanna
1085-1090
1091-1096
-6
Mill quality
Indore
1115-1120
1130-1135
-15
Mill quality
Kanpur
1070-1075
1070-1075
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show weak sentiments. Prices closed below 9-day and 18-day EMA indicating a weak trend. Stochastic is falling in normal region. MACD is in positive territory and moving downwards, indicating some weakness in medium term. Volume has decreased whereas Open Interest has increased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening.
WEATHER
Much awaited rains seem elusive. Otherwise weather is supportive currently.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
<1015
1006
1002
1020
997
1002
1013
1020
1026
GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS
Guar spot markets observed steady to slightly firm sentiments during Saturday’s trade where spot prices of guar seed and guar gum quoted steady in the majority of markets on subdued physical demand and steady arrivals. Arrivals remain steady at 1100 bags in Bikaner, while declined slightly to 300 from 400 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals remain steady at 15000-16000 bags during the day all over India. Slight demand from millers observed during on Saturday, while the Stockists activity remained silent in the market. Moreover, weakness in the guar futures market, affected the trading activities in the spot market too.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year
Bears
2.
Improved arrivals
Bears
3.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1840
1840
-
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1950
1940
+10
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4888
4888
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern exhibits weak tone, with sellers turning active at higher levels. Stochastic is in oversold region and moving slightly upwards. MACD is in negative region and moving downwards. Closing price is in below the 9 days and the 18 days EMA.
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Sell
<1975
1945
1935
1990
1935
1940
1969
1990
2000
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Sell
<4905
4855
4830
4935
4800
4825
4885
4936
4960
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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