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Jan 31 2007 10:00AM
31st Jan 2007 Oil Seeds Report

REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot prices of refined soy oil remained subdued on poor demand and low trade activities amidst Muharram holiday. Weak BMD/overnight CBOT and sharp decline in crude soy oil CIF rates contributed to bearishness. Reports of bird flu in Russia added to bearish sentiments. The CIF prices for crude soy oil quoted at $672/tonne to $677/tonne for February shipment on Tuesday. Traders are expecting further weakness on lack of fresh demand.

NCDEX soy oil futures closed at Rs. 450.15/10kg, Rs 0.9 lower compared to the previous close.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Report of bird flu out break in Russia Bears
2.
Steady to bearish sentiments for soymeal Bears
3.
Declining crude soy oil CIF prices Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
445
446
-1
Refined
Indore
426
428
-2
Refined
Kota
430
435
-5
Refined
Rajkot
453
455
-2
 
TECHNICALS
Chart for refined soy oil showed bearish trend. The prices closed below 9-days and 18-days EMA, indicating strong bearishness. MACD is falling in negative territory showing bearish momentum. Stochastics has made a bearish crossover in the oversold region. Volume increased while open interest declined.
 
WEATHER
Forecast of isolated rainfall in North Rajasthan might affect beans arrivals while clear weather in rest of major growing areas would facilitate arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
450
448
447
452
443
445
450.15
457
460
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Trade activities remained sluggish across domestic markets on Muharram. In MP bean prices improved marginally by Rs. 5 on sharply lower arrivals at 15,000-20,000 bags with steady offtake from resellers. Mixed CBOT and weak BMD induced bearish impact. Reports of bird flu in Russia added to bearishness. Meal demand remained weak in domestic market and on ports.

The NCDEX March contract closed at Rs 1426.05/qtl, Rs 10.25 lower than the previous closing level.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Reports bird flu in Russia Bears
2.
Most domestic spot markets remained closed due to Muharram Bears
3.
Steady to low meal demand Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1420-1423
1425-1430
-5
Indore
Mandi
1370-1395
1370-1400
0
Maharashtra
Plant
MC
1455-1460
-
Maharashtra
Mandi
MC
1410-1435
-
 
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are showing weak sentiments in the market. The prices closed below EMAs, which shows weak trend in the short term. MACD and Stochastic are both in favor of bears. Candlestick has formed a maruboju pattern, which supports the bears strongly. The prices are likely to remain on the softer side.
 
WEATHER
Forecast of isolated rainfall over north Rajasthan might affect bean arrivals while in rest of growing areas mainly dry weather would facilitate bean arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar.
Sell
1430
1420
1415
1436
1410
1418
1426.05
1443
1449
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Due to Muharram trade activities remained sluggish and no selling of mustard seed was reported from Nafed. Stockists and resellers dominated the market and sold at higher prices to yesterday while overall arrivals declined resulting in improved sentiments. The projected production [2006-07] for mustard is lower at 58.5 lakh tonnes in comparison with 67.7 lakh tonnes for 2005-06, owing to delay in sowing and higher temperatures supported bullish sentiments.

The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 369.3/20 Kg, Rs 1 higher than the previous close.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Stockists and resellers remained active in selling in the absence of Nafed. Bears
2.
Lower mustard seed arrivals Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1840-1845
1835-1840
+5
Alwar
Conditioned
1750
1740-1745
+10
Delhi
Conditioned
1890
1880
+10
 
TECHNICALS
Mustard charts are showing continued weakness in the market. The prices closed below EMAs, which shows bearish trend is intact. MACD is running down slowly in negative region, which suggests bearish momentum is increasing. Stochastics are also negative in the neutral region. The prices are likely to remain on softer side.
 
WEATHER
The cloudy condition over north Rajasthan could be less supportive to mustard crop in pod filling to seed forming stage.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
367
373
375
364
362
366
369.3
375
377
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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