A Reliance Capital Company
Company Search
Open an Account
|
Login
|
Demo
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
In a market that's growing at 400% per annum.
We offer
Lowest cost of trading
Trade till 11:30 in the night
Equity
|
Derivatives
|
IPO
|
Commodity
|
Mutual Funds
|
Forex
|
Insurance
You are in :
Home
Commodity
OVERVIEW
Commodity News
Agri Commentary
Commodity Commentary
Knowledge Centre
Market Round Up
Bullion Report
Arbitrage Calculator
Base Metals
Energy
Pulses
Spices
Oil Seeds
Feb 2 2007 10:25AM
2nd Feb 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur remained steady. Traders attributed steady arrivals as well as offtake as the major reason behind the steadiness in chilli prices. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming month. Talks of prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain moderately bearish to steady in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops
Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
5800-6400
5800-6400
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
6400-7000
6400-7000
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Volume as well as open interest has increased as compared to previous settlement. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. The %K-line has just entered the overbought region, leaving scope for further uptrend. MACD is moving upwards in the positive territory. Red chillies futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of downward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Buy
4490-4500
4550
4590
4440
4290
4410
4519
4605
4715
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets witnessed a bearish trend. It was quoted lower by Rs. 300 per quintal in Kochi amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Talks of removal of subsidy of pepper export has pressurised the market sentiments, however, no confirmation is received so far. India has exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent and 3.46 per cent growth in consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in the global market in near future. Domestic scenario could well match global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12200
12500
-300
Ungarbled
Kochi
11600
11900
-300
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. The %K-line has made a bearish crossover with the %D-line, hinting likely downward technical correction. MACD is moving indecisively in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has increased. Black pepper futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
12650
12575
12550
12700
11985
12260
12645
12965
13230
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets extended previous weakness further. It was quoted lower amidst higher arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market and consequently has pressurised the market sentiments. Production of jeera is expected at the lower side this year. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of next month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-Dec 2006. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future supported by its strong fundamentals.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market
Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1710-1760
1730-1780
-20
Ganesh
Unjha
1760-1810
1780-1830
-20
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1860-1880
1880-2000
-25
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting weak prices in short-tern. Volume has increased, while open interest has decline as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
9200
9150
9100
9250
8915
9005
9160
9260
9345
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric markets remained on an average steady to slightly firm. It was quoted slightly higher in Nizamabad markets amidst lower arrivals. However, prices were offered steady in Erode markets amidst improved offtake. Fresh crop arrivals are coming in the markets with mixed quality, wherein the inferior ones are fetching lower prices. Arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming days that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric markets are likely to remain bearish on a better crop harvest outlook for the season.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
2000
1950-1975
+25
Gattha
Nizamabad
1900
1875-1900
-
Finger
Erode
2100-2200
2100-2200
-
Gattha
Erode
2000-2100
2000-2100
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below the 9-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous settlement. Turmeric futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Sell
2030
2015
2010
2040
1965
1998
2026
2055
2085
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
Reliance Disclaimer
Back
News
Research
Markets
Knowledge Center
Charting
Customer Service
Contact Us
Site Map