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Wednesday, February 14, 2007
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Feb 1 2007 10:47AM
1st Feb 2007 Spices Report

RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS  
Red chillies market in Guntur remained firm. Traders attributed slightly reduced arrivals amidst improved demand as the major reason behind the firmness in chilli prices recently. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming month. Talks of prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. Acreage under chilli is estimated to have doubled. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain moderately bearish to steady in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006 Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
5800-6400
Closed
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
6400-7000
Closed
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic is moving indecisively in the normal region. MACD is moving upwards in the positive territory. Red chillies futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of downward movements later in the session.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Buy
4475
4550
4575
4425
4299
4410
4505
4615
4720






BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS  
Black pepper markets firmed up again. It was quoted up by Rs. 200 per quintal in Kochi amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Spot markets have witnessed a sharp rally in the recent past owing to improved demand scenario. Traders are optimistic of prospective export demand given the lower price of Indian pepper at the global markets. India has exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-Dec 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent and 3.46 per cent growth in global consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in the global market in near future. Domestic scenario could well match the global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12500
12300
+200
Ungarbled
Kochi
11900
11700
+200
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving slightly upwards in the overbought region, hinting further uptrend. MACD is also moving upwards in the positive territory, supporting the firmness. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has increased. Black pepper futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some downward movements later in the session.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar BUY 13100-13150 13250 13300 13000 12300 12665 13152 13565 13970






JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS  
Jeera markets witnessed some soft trend. It was quoted lower amidst slightly higher arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market, though the quantity of the same is still less. Production of jeera is expected at the lower side owing to reduced acreage under the crop this year. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of next month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-Dec 2006. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future supported by its strong fundamentals.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006 Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1730-1780
1750-1800
-20
Ganesh
Unjha
1780-1830
1800-1850
-20
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1880-2000
1900-2025
-25
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic is moving indecisively in normal region. MACD is moving slightly downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting weak prices in short-tern. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
9375
9300
9275
9425
9180
9260
9366.5
9435
9515







TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS  
Turmeric markets witnessed a mixed trend. Finger variety was offered at a higher price in Nizamabad, while Gattah quoted lower. Prices remained steady in Erode markets despite higher arrivals. Arrivals are increasing from the fresh harvest, though the quality of the same is reported to be inferior one with higher moisture contents and quantity is also not enough to make any significant impact on prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming days that would further pressurise the prices.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India Bulls 


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
1950-1975
Closed
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
1875-1900
Closed
-
Finger
Erode
2100-2200
Closed
-
Gattha
Erode
2000-2100
Closed
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region, indicating further downtrend. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below the 9-day EMA. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Turmeric futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movement later in the session.
 
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Sell
2040-2045
2025
2015
2060
1970
2005
2032
2065
2095
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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