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Feb 1 2007 10:28AM
1st Feb 2007 Oil Seeds Report
REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS
Prices for refined soy oil remained mixed in the physical markets on sluggish demand. In Mumbai and Hyderabad, soy oil prices stood range bound on steady supply/demand while fresh buying from resellers supported bullish sentiments in Indore and Kota. Firm sentiments at BMD and CBOT had spill over impact domestically. Crude soy oil CIF prices increased sharply and quoted at $680/tonne against previous closing of $672 for February shipment on Wednesday. In coming days soy oil prices are likely to be steady to bearish on pressure from cheaper substitutes like palm oil, cottonseed oil, etc.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bullish CBOT and BMD
Bulls
2.
Sluggish demand
Bears
3.
Improved crude soy oil CIF prices
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
445
445
0
Refined
Indore
427
426
+1
Refined
Kota
433
430
+3
Refined
Rajkot
450
453
-3
TECHNICALS
Refined soy oil chart is reflecting bullish bias. The prices closed near 9-days but below 18-days EMA, indicating underlying bullish sentiments. MACD progressed further deep in the negative territory showing bearish trends are yet to finish. Stochastics came closer to make bearish crossover in the oversold region. Both volume and open interest declined.
WEATHER
Mainly clear weather in most of soybean growing areas would facilitate arrivals.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
454
452
451
456
449
447
453.3
460
463
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS
Soybeans arrivals improved across domestic market as most of mandis remained closed yesterday due to Muharram. Improved demand for soymeal at ports reflected similar sentiments in the physical market resulting good offtake of beans by solvent extraction units supported bullishness. Rates for beans firmed up in Rajasthan owing to demand from local processors. Strengthening crude palm oil futures at BMD and soy futures at CBOT supported bullish sentiments.
The NCDEX March contract closed at Rs 1438/qtl, Rs 10.05 up over previous closing level.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Improved overall bean arrivals
Bears
2.
Improved meals sentiments at ports
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1425-1430
1420-1423
+5
Indore
Mandi
1385-1390
1370-1395
+15
Maharashtra
Plant
1460-1465
MC
-
Maharashtra
Mandi
1415-1420
MC
-
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are showing weak sentiments in the market. The prices recovered Wednesday, but still closed below EMAs, which shows that the current weak phase is still in effect. MACD and Stochastic are both in favor of bears. The prices are likely to remain on the softer side.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather in major growing areas would facilitate beans arrivals.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar.
Sell
1444
1430
--
1151
1417
1425
1438
1447
1453
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS
NAFED has revised mustard seed prices higher uniformly across the spot markets. The new rates quoted by NAFED stood at Rs 1730/quintal against previous rate of Rs. 1725/qtl for Jaipur region and for rest of the centres it stood at Rs 1680/qtl as compared to previous at Rs. 1675/qtl for seeds stocked during 2005-06 season. Seasonal and festive demand supported offtake of seeds by millers and crushers at current prices, amidst dwindling seed stock with NAFED and reports of delayed new crop harvest. The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 372.3/20 Kg, Rs 2.75 higher than previous day’s closing price levels.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
NAFED hiked mustard seeds prices by Rs. 5 in all the centres
Bulls
2.
Expectation of delayed harvest by a week or more
Bulls
3.
Improved overall arrivals
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1850-1860
1840-1845
+10
Alwar
Conditioned
1780-1785
1750
+25
Delhi
Conditioned
1890
1890
0
TECHNICALS
Mustard charts are showing some recovery as depicted by close above the short term EMAs. Stochastic has made bullish crossover and running upward in the neutral region. MACD is heading upward in negative region, which shows decreasing bearish momentum. The prices are likely to show volatility.
WEATHER
The forecast of mainly dry weather in Rajasthan would be supportive for maturing mustard crop.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
374
370
368
376
367
369
372.3
375
377
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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