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Jan 31 2007 10:56AM
31st Jan 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur remained closed on Tuesday. Fresh crop arrivals started getting momentum in the past few days. Arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming month. Talks of prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. Acreage under chilli this year is estimated to have doubled. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain moderately bearish in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops
Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
Closed
5700-6300
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
Closed
6300-6900
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Volume has increased, while open interest has declined. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic is moving indecisively in the normal region. MACD is moving upwards in the positive territory, supporting the firmness. Red chillies futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of downward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
4550-4575
4500
4475
4625
4300
4390
4510
4630
4700
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets witnessed a soft trend. It was quoted lower by Rs. 100 per quintal amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Spot markets have witnessed a sharp rally in the recent past owing to improved demand scenario. Overseas enquiries are also reported after a while and traders are optimistic of prospective export demand. India has exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent (IPC estimates) and 3.46 per cent growth in global consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in global market in near future. Domestic scenario could well match global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12300
12400
-100
Ungarbled
Kochi
11700
11800
-100
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic are moving upwards in the overbought region, hinting further uptrend. MACD is also moving upwards in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume has increased, while open interest has declined. Black pepper futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening initially with possibility of upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
BUY
12475-12500
12675
12725
12350
11820
12130
12601
13000
13325
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets maintain its previous position. It was quoted steady amidst slightly lower arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market, though the quantity of the same is still negligible. Production of jeera is expected at the lower side owing to reduced acreage under the crop this year. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of next month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-Dec 2006. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future supported by its strong fundamentals.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market
Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1750-1800
1750-1800
-
Ganesh
Unjha
1800-1850
1800-1850
-
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1900-2025
1900-2025
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic after a bullish crossover is moving indecisively in normal region. MACD is also moving flat in the positive territory. Prices closed above 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-tern. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade downwards following a weak opening with possibility of upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
9200-9225
9300
9325
9140
9095
9160
9268
9340
9400
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric markets remained on an average closed. Prices had maintained a stable trend during the recent time. Arrivals have started from the fresh harvest, though the quality of the same is reported to be inferior one with higher moisture contents and quantity is also not enough to make any significant impact on prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming days that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric is likely to remain bearish on a better crop harvest outlook for the season.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
Closed
1925-1950
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
Closed
1925-1950
-
Finger
Erode
Closed
2100-2200
-
Gattha
Erode
Closed
2000-2100
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region, indicating further downtrend. MACD is moving flat in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Turmeric futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of downward movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Buy
2040
2055
2060
2030
1975
2005
2044
2080
2105
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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