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Agri Commentary
Feb 1 2007 10:16AM
1st Feb 2007 Agri Report
SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS
Sugar spot market reflected weak sentiments during Wednesday’s trade where the spot prices of sugar eased further in the major trading centers like Delhi, Muzaffarnagar on lack of demand, while the spot prices of Kolkata remained steady on quiet demand. Persistent supply from mills also impacted the market negatively. At current price levels, Stockists are in no hurry to buy, as they know well that during the current year prices are unlikely to witness any major uptrend due to oversupply both domestically and globally.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected
Bears
2.
Weak physical demand
Bears
3.
Improved supply from mills
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1565-1595
1565-1600
-5
Sugar S
Delhi
1550-1580
1550-1585
-5
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1480-1510
1480-1515
-5
TECHNICALS
On the NCDEX February charts, candlestick pattern is bearish. The MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all showing bearish indications. Prices continue to remain below the gradually falling 9-day and 18-day EMA, indicating that short and medium term prospects are bearish. Prices closed right at the 1580 support level and any close below this is likely to result in a further downtrend up to the 1560-1565 levels.
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1584
1578
1574
1589
1565
1570
1580
1600
1608
WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS
Wheat prices remained lower in majority of domestic markets on stockists selling amidst poor demand. Lower wheat products demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers from purchasing wheat from open market. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills decreased at Rs.1010/qtl on selling pressure from stockists following increased supplies. Arrivals remained steady at higher levels around 8,000-10,000 bags. Significant volume of wheat has started arriving in market yards of Gujarat. Winter rains in northern India have raised hopes of higher wheat production. In Rajkot, the fresh arrivals reported at 3,000 bags per day and price remained steady at Rs.1040-1050. The traders from M.P. mandis expected some fresh arrivals during mid February. The demand from South India continues to remain poor.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand
Bulls
2.
Poor demand all over India amidst higher arrivals
Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1010
1020
-10
Mill quality
Khanna
1055-1060
1050-1055
+5
Mill quality
Indore
1060-1065
1070-1075
-10
Mill quality
Kanpur
1020-1025
1030-1035
-10
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show indecision in the market. Prices remain below 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is rising in normal region following a bullish crossover. MACD is rising in negative territory. Volume and Open Interest decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening.
WEATHER
The temperatures at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
< 1016
1006
1001
1022
991
1000
1012.2
1023
1030
GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS
The guar spot markets witnessed bearish sentiments during Wednesday’s trade. The arrivals at the major physical markets are reported to be steady at around 15000-16000 bags. Arrivals stood steady at 1200 bags in Bikaner and 200 bags in Nokha. With a steady arrival, the prices of guar at the physical markets remained on the lower side. Moreover, the downward trend in the futures market has also influenced spot market sentiments. Despite a lower price, activity was limited at the physical markets with sellers being inactive at the lower levels. Traders are expecting a quick recovery in guar prices, as export activity is likely to pick up in coming days.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year
Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
31.01.07
30.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1840
1860
-20
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1950
1970
-20
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4940
4992
-52
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows weak market sentiment. Stochastic is rising in normal region. MACD is in negative region and moving upwards, indicating firm tone for medium term. Closing price is in-between 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade higher after a weak opening. However, there is a possibility of some early downward movement.
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Buy
>1985
2010
2020
1970
1963
1974
1992
2020
2027
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Buy
>4925
4985
5015
4895
4884
4900
4946
5015
5045
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
Reliance Disclaimer
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