FUNDAMENTALS

Copper prices recovered slightly during Thursday’s session following the release of high Chinese September import numbers, improvement in equity markets, record highs of crude oil and weakness in the US dollar.  

However gains were restricted due to another build up in LME copper stocks, renewed sub prime concerns particularly after the release of Merrill Lynch Q3 losses, and on expectation of slightly weak Chinese demand in the near term as physical markets have ample supplies from last months purchases. LME warehouse copper stocks added 75 mt to build 151,450 mt.

Moreover, US housing market conditions are still concerning, visible from fall in September’s housing starts, existing and new home sales.

China’s September refined copper imports rose 17% on month, 46.2% on yr to 102,078 mt. Its refined copper & concentrate imports during Jan -Sep rose 98% on yr to 1.18 million mt & 26.8% on yr to 3,463,208 mt respectively.  Refined copper export in Sep fell 81.3% on yr to 4,290 mt & during Jan-Sep fell 59% on yr to 97,375 mt according to the General Administration of Customs of China.

National Bureau of Statistics said China’s copper output in Sep rose 24% on yr to 307,000 mt. Jan-Sep output rose 16% on yr to 2.5 million mt.

TECHNICALS

Copper chart is showing a downtrend. Candlestick pattern are showing indecision. MACD is falling in negative zone showing bearish momentum. Prices have closed below short & medium term EMA’s showing weakness. Stochastic is falling in oversold region indicating weakness however RSI is rising in neutral region showing firmness. Copper may trade volatile during the session.