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Jan 25 2007 10:24AM
25th Jan 2007 Oil Seeds Report

REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS  
Refined soy oil market witnessed weak sentiments across the board on the concerns of duty cut by government. Later during the evening government effected a cut in duty of Palm oils and Sunflower oil by 10 percent in order to combat rising inflation in the country. However some section of the trade opine that the overseas prices (CIF) will sharply move up to offset any gains that may accrue on downward adjustment of duty. BMD futures also witnessed weak sentiments as recent data showed decreasing exports from the country. CIF crude soy oil prices increased further to $702 against previous $695/tonne for February shipment on Tuesday. The sentiments in refined soy oil market are likely to remain subdued until the final decision on the issue of duty cut is taken.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Cut in customs duty on Palm oils and Sun-flower oils Bears
2.
Bullish CBOT Bulls
3.
Increased arrivals of seeds Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
24.01.07
23.01.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
451
453
-2
Refined
Indore
434
435
-1
Refined
Kota
441
441
-
Refined
Rajkot
NA
455
0
 
TECHNICALS
Refined soy oil futures slipped sharply extending its weak trend. The prices closed below 9-days and 18-days EMA, which suggests downtrend is intact. MACD is heading downwards in negative region, indicating medium term weakness. Stochastic is also negative in oversold region. The prices are likely to show volatility with bearish bias.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather in major growing areas would facilitate bean arrivals in coming days.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
460
457
455
462
456
459
464.25
471
474
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Soybean arrivals increased significantly in Indore as the stockists offloaded their stocks. With reduction of duty on imported veg-oils, stockists seemed under pressure to offload their stocks. Arrivals stood steady in Maharashtra and Rajasthan market and it is reported at 70,000 and 20,000 respectively. The prices are likely to see further hammering in the coming days as the Government has reduced duty on CPO to 60% from earlier 70% levels. Reduced duty would result in cheaper imports and thus domestic oil prices are likely to see some softness. The seed prices might also follow the cue. The NCDEX February contract settled at Rs. 1424.90/qtl, Rs.6.42 below the previous close.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Govt. cuts customs duty on Palm and Sunflower oils Bears
2.
Sluggish demand Bears
3.
Continued good availability of soybeans Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
24.01.07
23.01.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1425-1440
1425-1440
0
Indore
Mandi
1370-1410
1370-1390
0
Maharashtra
Plant
1470-1475
1460-1470
+10
Maharashtra
Mandi
1400-1420
1420-1440
-20
 
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are showing weakness in the market. The prices closed below 9-days EMA, which indicate short-term bearishness. MACD is running downward in positive zone, which hints for decrease in bullish momentum. Stochastics however are negative in neutral region. The prices might hover on the bearish side.
 
WEATHER
Weather is reported to be clear to facilitate arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
1429
1415
1410
1439
1400
1413
1424.9
1444
1452
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Mustard prices remained steady to weak in most of the major trading centers, as NAFED revised downwards seed prices further. NAFED has reduced the mustard seed rates by Rs. 5 per qtl in most of the centers; however, some centers saw a reduction of Rs. 10 too. As per trade sources millers have piled up sufficient stocks keeping in mind lower crop outlook. The cut in import duties on palm oil complex and sunflower oil by the government is likely to have a slightly bearish impact on all domestic oilseed and edible oil prices. Mustard seed prices are also likely to see a fall in prices in sympathy with the rest of the oil complex. The NCDEX February contract settled at Rs. 368.20/20Kg, Rs.5.15 lower than the previous closing level.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Overall arrivals increased Bears
2.
Anticipation of mustard harvest by first week of February. Bears
3.
Govt. cuts customs duty on Palm and Sunflower oils Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
24.01.07
23.01.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1840-1835
1840-1845
0
Alwar
Conditioned
1770
1750-1760
+20
Delhi
Conditioned
1910-1915
1910
0
 
TECHNICALS
Mustard slipped sharply today extending the current weak trend. The prices closed below 9-days and 18-days EMA, which suggests downtrend is intact. MACD has made bearish crossover in negative region. Stochastics are also negative in neutral region. The prices are mostly likely to remain on the softer side.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over western India. A fresh western disturbance is expected to sweep northwest India in approaching days.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
370
365
--
373
361
363
368.3
372
375
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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