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Feb 7 2007 10:09AM
7th Feb 2007 Oil Seeds Report

REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS  
Weak BMD and lower crude soy oil CIF prices coupled with mixed overnight CBOT sentiments reflected in domestic markets. Demand for refined soy oil remained sluggish. Soybean arrivals were steady but less aggressive buying supported bearishness. Steady release of soy oil was reported from processors. Crude soy oil CIF prices remained unchanged at $685/tonne for February shipment on Tuesday. Both domestic and overseas soyoil prices are expected to be steady to easy.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Steady sentiments for soymeal Bears
2.
Crude soy oil CIF prices remained steady to easy. Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
446
446
0
Refined
Indore
428
429
-1
Refined
Kota
436
436
0
Refined
Rajkot
450
450
0
 
TECHNICALS
The long filled-body candlestick bar on the NCDEX March charts shows sellers dominated after a strong opening. The Stochastic is rising in neutral region. Prices dropped below the 9-day EMA and 18-day EMA. MACD is gradually declining in negative territory. Volume declined but open interest increased. The market appears to be in an intermediate downtrend. Selling on rallies appears to be the best strategy.
 
WEATHER
Mainly clear weather in most of soybeans growing areas would facilitate arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
462
460
459
464
455
458
459.45
466
468
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Soybeans prices eased across domestic market amidst sluggish BMD and shift in Stockist’s interest to mustard. Soybean arrivals stood steady domestically with reduced offtake from crushers. However steady sentiments for soymeal in domestic market are expected to hold the prices from falling down further in near term. As soybean arrivals taper with advancing lean season and mustard arrivals improve, soymeal exports is expected to move the sentiments for beans.

 

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Lower production of substitute oilseeds. Bulls
2.
Resistance from processors to purchase at ruling prices. Bulls
3.
Bearish BMD and mixed CBOT Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1430-1450
1430-1460
0
Indore
Mandi
1375-1400
1360-1400
+15
Maharashtra
Plant
1470
1480
-10
Maharashtra
Mandi
1430-1460
1450-1460
-20
 
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are turning bearish after two consecutive losses. The prices closed below EMAs showing weakness in the market. Stochastic is positive in neutral region, MACD is showing some increase in bullish momentum. The prices might see volatile movements with bearish bias. There appears to be strong overhead resistance in the 1460-1470 levels.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather in major growing areas (except North Rajasthan) would facilitate beans arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar.
Sell
1441
1429
--
1447
1420
1428
1436.6
1451
1460
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS  
NAFED kept mustard seeds prices unchanged on second consecutive day. Fresh arrivals of mustards seeds reported in Kota division had bearish impact. In Jaipur region, stockists released mustard seeds in good quantity ahead of new crop arrivals, resulting in overall arrivals increasing by 5,000-6,000 bags supporting bearishness. The progress of harvests in Kota division and in parts of Madhya Pradesh would further hasten bearish trend on mustard seed prices in coming days.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Routine demand in physical markets Bears
2.
Harvest begin in the parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh Bears
3.
Gradually depleting private seed stocks. Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1850-1870
1870-1875
-20
Alwar
Conditioned
1760-1770
1770-1780
-10
Delhi
Conditioned
1935
1930
+5
 
TECHNICALS
Mustard charts show bearish sentiments in the market. The prices closed below short term EMAs, which is a negative sign, however doji formation of candlestick shows indecision in the market. Stochastic has also made bearish crossover in neutral region. However, MACD is showing some increase in bullish momentum. The prices are likely to remain on the softer side.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather likely over Rajasthan (except Northern parts) would be supportive for harvesting.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
371
368
367
373
367
366
370
373
376
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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