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Tuesday, February 13, 2007
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Feb 6 2007 4:43PM
6th Feb 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur witnessed highly bearish sentiment on Monday. Huge crop arrivals in the market has pressurised the market sentiments. Fresh arrivals are expected to gain further momentum during the later half of the month and consequently adding to the bearishness. Traders reported dull demand at present in the market. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006 owing to higher prices prevailing at that time. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. Chilli prices are likely to remain bearish in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Fresh crop arrivals gaining momentum
Bears
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Lacklustre demand at the markets
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
5100-6100
Closed
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
5700-6600
Closed
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates weak opening and initial downtrend. Volume as well as open interest has increased considerably nt. Prices closed below the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term weakness in prices. Stochastic is moving downwards in the normal region. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory. Red chillies futures are likely to trade downwards following a weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
SELL
4225-4250
4150
4125
4300
4000
4110
4224
4320
4430
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets remained bearish on Monday. It was quoted lower in Kochi amidst arrivals as well as offtake of 45 Mt. According to a recent notification by the Spices Board of India regarding the WTO Compatible subsidy on export of pepper/pepper products, the Board has already received applications for subsidy on pepper exports for a quantity of 20000 MT which is the upper limit upto which pepper exporters are eligible for the freight subsidy. Therefore, no more applications in this regard from the exporters will be accepted. Notably, India has already exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006 achieving the target of set quantity as well.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
No further freight subsidy for pepper export
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12300
12400
-100
Ungarbled
Kochi
11700
11800
-100
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in the normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is also moving downwards in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has increased. Black pepper futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening initially with possibility of some late downward movements.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
BUY
12650
12800
12850
12550
12265
12475
12730
12985
13210
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets maintained its previous steadiness during Monday’s trade. It was quoted unchanged in Unjha amidst higher arrivals and steady offtake. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market and consequently pressurising the market sentiments. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up further during the next couple of weeks that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-December 2006. Domestic jeera prices are likely to consolidate in short-term.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in
Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quality terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Moderate stock position in market
Bears
4.
Crop arrivlas increasing in market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1700-1750
1700-1750
-
Ganesh
Unjha
1750-1800
1750-1800
-
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1850-1870
1850-1870
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. The %K-line is about top make a bullish crossover with the %D-line, hinting further uptrend. MACD is moving flat in the negative territory. Prices closed below 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting weak prices in short-tern. Volume as well as open interest has increased as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some downward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Jan
BUY
9250
9325
9350
9200
9115
9195
9280
9425
9500
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric markets remained stable. Prices quoted unchanged in Erode amidst steady arrivals as well as offtake. Despite higher arrivals in Nizamabad, prices also remained steady. Traders reported weak demand at present. Fresh crop arrivals are coming in the markets with mixed quality, wherein the inferior ones with higher moisture contents are fetching lower prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming couple of weeks that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric markets are likely to remain moderately bearish on a better crop harvest outlook for the season.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals in the markets
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
05.02.07
03.02.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
2000
2000
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
1900
1900
-
Finger
Erode
2050-2150
Closed
-
Gattha
Erode
2000-2100
Closed
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving indecisively in the normal region. MACD is also moving flat in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume has increased, while open interest has declined. Turmeric futures are likely to trade moderately upwards following a steady opening with possibility of downwards movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the producing region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
BUY
2030
2040
2045
2022
1998
2015
2030
2049
2065
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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