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Agri Commentary
Feb 3 2007 10:06AM
3rd Feb 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Sugar spot market witnessed weak sentiments during Friday’s trade when the spot prices eased slightly in the major markets like Delhi, Muzaffarnagar and Kolkata amidst poor physical demand and Government’s decision to release free sale quota of sugar. The Government has decided to release 13 lakh tonnes of non-levy sugar quota for the month of February 2007. The Government has already released 1.74-lakh tonnes levy sugar for distribution in the PDS for the month of February 2007. Thus, the total sugar released for the month of February 2007 remains at 14.74 lakh tonnes. The above quantity is sufficient to cater the regular consumptive demand.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Release of 13 lakh tonnes of free sale quota for Feb’07 Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1565-1590 1565-1595
-5
Sugar S
Delhi
1550-1575 1550-1580
-5
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1480-1505 1480-1510
-5
 
TECHNICALS
The NCDEX February sugar charts continue to show gradual erosion in prices. Prices continue to remain below the gradually falling 9-day and 18-day EMA, indicating the market is in a prolonged weak trend. No intra-day rally has threatened breaking above the 9-day EMA. Fairly significant support lies around the 1560-1565 levels, which mark the contract lows. A fall below that should cause increased selling pressure.
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1576
1569
1566
1580
1554
1558
1572
1585
1590






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices remained firm in majority of domestic markets during Friday on lower arrivals. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills was up by Rs.20 per Qtl. at Rs.1060-1070/qtl on decreased arrivals around 3,000-4000 bags. To curb high prices of atta/suji, the govt. has decided to release 4 lakh tonnes of wheat under the open market sales scheme in the domestic markets. Fresh wheat crop continue arriving in market yards of Gujarat. Both experts and market observers are closely watching weather for the likely impact on the growing crop.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Govt’s intention to release 4 lakh tonnes
in February and March under open market sale scheme (OMSS).
Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1060-1070
1040-1050
+20
Mill quality
Khanna
1055-1060
1051-1055
+5
Mill quality
Indore
1055-1060
1050-1055
+5
Mill quality
Kanpur
1020-1025
1015-1020
+5
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show bullish sentiments in the market. Prices closed above 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic are rising in normal region after a bullish crossover. MACD is in positive territory and moving upwards. Volume has increased whereas Open Interest has decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bullish initially following a firm opening and downward movement thereafter.
 
WEATHER
The temperature at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
<1052
1042
1038
1058
1030
1038
1044
1060
1064





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
The guar spot markets witnessed firm sentiment during Friday's trade, when the spot prices of guar seed and guar gum quoted higher in majority of markets. Moreover, the firmness in the futures market, also affected the spot market sentiments. The arrivals at major physical markets are reported to be steady at around 15000-16000 bags. Arrivals declined from 1200 bags to 800 bags in Bikaner, while arrivals remained steady at 400 bags in Nokha. Millers remained active during the today’s trade, while stockists and exporters remain silent in the market, as they have ample of stocks with them. Market continues to look for direction.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
02.02.07
01.02.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1870
1830
+40
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
2000
1950
+50
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4990
4890
+100
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern exhibits firm market sentiment. Stochastic is rising in normal region. MACD is in negative region and moving upwards. Prices have abruptly closed above the 9-day and the 18-day EMAs, after making several abortive bids to break out. However, the market is in a deep downtrend and guar prices should show an ability to sustain rallies for a meaningful uptrend to begin.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Buy
> 2000
2025
2034
1988
1983
1991
2005
2034
2042
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Buy
> 4960
5110
5135
4935
4916
4936
4975
5040
5062
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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