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Tuesday, March 06, 2007

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Bullion Report

Feb 13 2007 9:30AM
13th Feb 2007 Bullion Report

GOLD

FUNDAMENTALS

After hitting seven-month high in the Singapore, gold retreated lower due to weaker oil. In London spot market gold touched a high of $668 before slipping to $665.1 per troy ounce, down $2.70.

Chinese consumers are thronging jewellery stores to buy gold trinkets and accessories to usher in the lunar new- year.

South African gold output fell 12.4 percent in volume terms while overall minerals production increased 10.5 percent in December compared with the same month the previous year, official data showed on Monday.

Comex warehouse stocks unchanged at 7,487,683 ounces.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears

No.	Pressure Point	Favours
1.	Gold retreats due to weaker oil.	Bears
2.	Strong Chinese demand ahead of new-year.	Bulls
3.	SA gold output fell 12.4% y-o-y.	Bulls
4.	Comex warehouse stocks remain unchanged.	Bears

EVENT WATCH: (Monday)

National Australia Bank Jan business survey

Japan Jan consumer confidence survey

Euro zone preliminary Q4 GDP, Dec industrial output

US Dec trade balance, ICSC-UBS Store Sales, Redbook

TECHNICALS

Gold is showing hesitation at higher levels. However, close above the short term EMAs suggests firmness in the market. Rising MACD in positive zone indicate increasing bullish momentum. Stochastic is also positive in neutral zone. The prices are likely to recover after some consolidation.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Contract	Call	Entry	T1	T2	SL	S2	S1	PCP	R1	R2
MCX-April	Buy	>9488	9550	9595	9453	9445	9488	9517	9575	5617

SILVER

FUNDAMENTALS

Silver prices reflected the trend observed in gold. In London spot market silver quoted 12 cents lower at $13.76 per troy ounce.

Silver stock held under the ETF has increased last week. There has been rise in fund investment lately in ETF.

Comex warehouse stocks gained 84,643 ounces to 114,838,597 ounces.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears

No.	Pressure Point	Favours
1.	Silver prices to reflect gold trend.	Bears
2.	Fund investment in silver ETF.	Bulls
3.	Comex warehouse stocks gain 84,643 ounces.	Bears

EVENT WATCH:

Events covered under gold section

TECHNICALS

Silver is also showing hesitation at higher levels. The prices closed below 9-days EMA, which suggests short term weakness in the prices. However, rising MACD in positive zone indicate increasing bullish momentum. Stochastic is positive in neutral zone. The prices are likely to show volatility.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Contract	Call	Entry	T1	T2	SL	S2	S1	PCP	R1	R2
MCX-Mar	Buy	>20000	20150	20270	19900	19668	19794	19975	20277	20457

DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).

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Equities: Trading through Reliance Securities Limited | NSE SEBI Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 231234833 | BSE SEBI
Registration Number Capital Market :- INB 011234839 | NSE SEBI Registration Number Derivatives :- INF 231234833 Commodities : Trading through Reliance Commodities Limited | MCX member code: 29030 | NCDEX member code: NCDEX-CO-05-00647|
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