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Agri Commentary
Jan 27 2007 9:41AM
27th Jan 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot market prices of sugar quoted slightly higher in the major trading centers like Muzaffarnagar and Kolkata amidst improved demand and normal supply from mills, while the spot prices in Delhi eased slightly on weak demand. Further, according to the market sources the prices will pick up some momentum, if some bulk demand originates from the beverage industry and export activity pick up. While domestic sugar situation is weak, there is no parity on the export front, resulting in steady decline in sugar prices.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Improved supply from mills Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1575-1625 1575-1630
-5
Sugar S
Delhi
1560-1610 1560-1615
-5
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1490-1540 1490-1545
-5
 
TECHNICALS
On the NCDEX February chart, candlestick pattern shows indecisive market. Technical indicators MACD, RSI and Stochastic favour the bears. Prices closed below the 9 days EMA and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade downward following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement.
 
WEATHER
Weather is fine for harvesting of sugarcane crop and favours arrivals for crushing.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1592
1584
1580
1597
1570
1576
1588
1600
1608






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices reflected weak undertone in most domestic markets on steady arrivals amidst poor demand at higher price levels. The lower wheat product demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers demand. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills quoted steady at Rs.1080/qtl on lower demand from roller flourmillers. However some demand is witnessed from local chakki millers. Arrivals remained 4000-5000 bags. Fresh arrivals of wheat are reported from Gujarat mandis. In Rajkot, fresh arrivals reported at 600-700 bags per day and price declined to Rs.1100-1105. However, the supply is confined in the state itself. With the outlook of higher crops the Maharashtra govt. eased storage limits on wholesalers imposed under the Essential Commodities Act.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Poor demand amidst some fresh arrivals in Gujarat Bears
3.
Higher acreage (281.135 L.ha. v/s 263.626L.ha.) on Jan 19, year-on-year Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1080
1080
-
Mill quality
Khanna
1085-1090
1091-1096
-6
Mill quality
Indore
1115-1120
1130-1135
-15
Mill quality
Kanpur
1070-1075
1070-1075
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows buying support at lower levels. Prices closed between the 9-day and 18-day EMAs. Stochastic is in normal region and falling. MACD is in positive territory and moving downwards, indicating some weakness in medium term. Volume as well as Open Interest has decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bullish following a steady to weak opening.
 
WEATHER
Much awaited rains seem elusive. Otherwise weather is supportive currently.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
>1024
1034
1038
1019
1013
1019
1026.4
1038
1045





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
Guar spot market observed weak sentiments on Thursday’s where spot prices of guar seed and guar gum declined in majority of markets amidst weak demand and steady arrivals. Arrivals stood steady at 1100 bags in Bikaner, 400 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals remain steady at 16000-18000 bags a day in all over India. Stockist’s activity remains silent in the market while slight demand from millers was observed at lower guar seed prices. Further, ban on futures trading in tur and urad along with weakness in guar futures market, affected trading activities in the spot market.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Improved arrivals Bears
3.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
25.01.07
24.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1840
1850
-10
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1940
1970
-30
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4888
4940
-52
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern indicates weakness. Stochastic is in normal region and moving downwards following a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative region and moving downwards. Closing price is far below the 9 days and the 18 days EMA.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Sell
<1980
1960
1950
1990
1940
1950
1966
1990
2000
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Sell
<4910
4860
4835
4940
4800
4830
4880
4940
4965
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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