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Bullion Report
Feb 7 2007 10:51AM
7th Feb 2007 Bullion Report

GOLD
FUNDAMENTALS  
Gold found support in weaker US dollar and firm tone in oil prices. In London spot market gold was offered $4.85 at $653.60 per troy ounce.

According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) the number of exchange traded contract have soared from less than 2 billion worth a notional $400 trillion in 2000 to current levels of around 8 billion contracts worth $1,600 trillion.

US jewellery sales rose 7.0 percent to $63 billion in 2006, as compared to $58.9 billion in 2005.

Comex warehouse stocks remained almost unchanged at 7,490,913 ounces.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Firm crude oil prices, weaker dollar. Bulls 
2.
Exchange traded contracts soars to around 8 bln. Bulls 
3.
US Jewellery sales up 7.0 percent in 2006. Bulls 
4.
Comex warehouse stocks almost unchanged. Bears


EVENT WATCH: (Monday)
Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate announcement
Hong Kong end-Jan forex reserves
Taiwan Jan trade balance
US Q4 productivity and costs, Dec consumer credit
 
TECHNICALS
Gold is showing hesitation at higher levels, however, close above short term EMAs indicate firmness in the market. Rising MACD in positive zone indicate increasing bullish momentum. However, stochastic is negative in neutral region. Prices are likely to see some volatility.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-April
Buy
> 9410
9460
9480
9380
9356
9377
9431
9481
9512





SILVER
FUNDAMENTALS  
Silver prices trended firm aide by stronger oil and firm trend in gold. In London spot market silver quoted 18 cents higher at $13.65 per troy ounce. Comex March silver edged 17 cents up to $13.735 an ounce in the electronic trade.

In 2006, approximately 1,100 tonnes (1,230 tonnes in 2005) of silver with an estimated value of nearly $400 million were produced in the United States. Approximately 1,000 tonnes of silver was recovered from old and new scrap in 2006.

Comex warehouse stocks gained 591,113 ounces to 114,490,361 ounces.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Stronger oil prices, firm trend in gold. Bulls
2.
US silver production drops in 2006. Bulls
3.
Comex warehouse stocks up 591,113 ounces. Bears


EVENT WATCH:
Events covered under gold section
 
TECHNICALS
Silver is also tentativeness at higher levels, however close above short term EMAs suggests firmness in the market is intact. Rising MACD in positive zone indicate increasing bullish momentum. However, stochastic is negative in neutral region. Prices are likely to see some volatility.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-Mar
Buy
> 19900
20120
20225
19800
19755
19872
20002
20284
20402
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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