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Agri Commentary
Feb 7 2007 9:45AM
7th Feb 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot market prices of sugar eased further in the major trading centers like Muzaffarnagar and Delhi amidst weak demand coupled with increased supply from mills against poor offtake by stockists and bulk consumers, while prices recovered slightly in Kolkata on slight demand. Declining sugar prices and unviable export coupled with bumper production of 23-24 million tonne with a higher carry over stock of 40 lakh tonnes, is weighing heavily on the finances of the sugar units and even the first advance and subsequent payments to the cane growers are adversely affected, which is likely to affect sugarcane planting and the acreage in turn, during the current year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Release of 13 lakh tonnes of free sale quota for Feb’07 Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1550-1580 1555-1585
-5
Sugar S
Delhi
1535-1565 1540-1570
-5
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1465-1495 1470-1500
-5
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows that though prices attempted to make a recovery after a long decline, it couldn’t sustain at higher levels. The RSI and Stochastic are in oversold region and showing faint signs of reversing. However, sugar is in a bear hug and needs successive strong finishes to signal the end of the downtrend. Market is expected to trade range bound following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement.
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1570
1562
1558
1575
1540
1545
1565
1582
1587






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices were steady to slightly up in domestic markets. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills increased by Rs.20 between Rs.1060-1065/qtl on steady arrivals around 3,000-4000 bags. Chakki millers were the active buyers. The lower wheat product demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers from purchasing wheat in the open market. However, increased fresh arrivals of about 3,500-4,000 bags in Gujarat markets softened sentiments there. Some demand from Chennai and Maharashtra is reported from Gujarat mandis. Harvesting of this year’s crop in most states will begin in March. Government’s decision to release 4 lakh tonnes of wheat under the Open Market Sale Scheme in February and March 2007 is supporting bearish tone.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Wheat acreage has been increased by over 17.5 lakh hectare as on 01.02.2007. Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat and wheat products at higher price levels Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1060-1065
1040-1045
+20
Mill quality
Khanna
1055-1060
1055-1060
-
Mill quality
Indore
1046-1052
1040-1046
+6
Mill quality
Kanpur
1035-1040
1030-1035
+5
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show some indecision. Prices managed to close just above the 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in normal region and moving downwards following a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative territory and moving downwards. Volume decreased while Open Interest increased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to firm opening.
 
WEATHER
The temperature at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
< 1027
1017
1002
1032
1006
1010
1022.6
1032
1037





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot market prices of guar seed and guar gum recovered in majority of markets amidst slight demand from processors and stockists. However, buying from processors and stockists are limited. Processors are procuring seed as per their immediate needs, while stockists are buying limited quantity as they already have ample of stock. Consequently overall arrivals declined and it is reported at 15000-16000 bags a day, which is absorbed in the market. Arrivals stood steady at 1100 bags in Bikaner, increased slightly from 200 to 300 bags in Nokha. Firmness in the futures market, also affected the spot market sentiments.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Farmers are releasing their stocks as per market demands. Bears
3.
Some stockist & processors demand Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
06.02.07
05.02.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1850
1835
+15
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1975
1950
+25
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4966
4888
+78
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern exhibits weak market sentiment. Stochastic is in normal region and falling after a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative region and moving slightly upwards. Closing price is in-between 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Sell
<2005
1980
1970
2018
1961
1970
1996
2015
2030
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Sell
<4970
4920
4895
4995
4880
4902
4946
4990
5062
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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