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Tuesday, August 21, 2007
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Bullion Report
Aug 8 2007 10:03AM
The currency fell against Yen

GOLD
FUNDAMENTALS  
Gold slipped slightly on Tuesday as Fed kept interest rates unchanged maintaining its focus on inflation. However some recovery in crude oil prices contained the losses. Comex December Gold gave away $1 to close at $682.30 an ounce.

Dollar traded mixed against major counterparts after the FOMC kept the key interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. The currency fell against Yen, whereas it strengthened against Euro. Fed maintained inflation as its key policy concern. The Federal Reserve expects moderate growth in coming months despite the problems in credit and housing markets and recent volatility in financial markets.

Bank of Spain sold 25 tonnes of gold during July with total sales of 134 tonnes in the current calendar year and 149 tonnes in the second CBGA year. Figures from the ECB suggest that sales in the CBGA year to date amount to 353 tonnes as compared to 340 tonnes in the second CBGA year during the same period. However, the European central banks gold sales during the last week dipped to mere 1.8 tonnes, which shows that the banks are in no hurry to offload their reserves.

Recent strength in Turkish lira against dollar and wedding season demand boosted Turkey’s gold bullion imports to a record high in July. However, with the weakening of lira and forthcoming Ramadan season gold demand is likely to dip.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Fed maintains its focus on inflation Bears
2.
Slight recovery in crude oil prices Bulls
3.
ECB gold sales slows during last week Bears
4.
Ramadan season in September to slow demand Bears


EVENT
German Trade Balance (June)
French Trade Balance (June)
EIA crude oil stock (Aug 3)
US Wholesale Inventories
 
TECHNICALS
Long lower shadow of candlestick shows hesitation at lower levels. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMAs, which supports bulls. MACD is showing some fall in bearish momentum. Stochastic is also supporting bulls in normal region. The prices are likely to see volatile movements with bullish bias.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-Oct
Buy
>8883
8920
8948
8870
8813
8854
8900
8950
8993





SILVER
FUNDAMENTALS  
Silver surged higher Tuesday ignoring the weakness in gold as firmness in crude oil prices and copper supported the prices. Silver for September delivery at Comex recouped almost half of the previous session’s losses to close the session at $13.095 an ounce, up 6.20 cents.

The metal, which normally mirrors the movement in gold, deviated from it on Tuesday as firmness in crude oil prices and bounce back in copper underpinned the prices.

Further, expectations of good economic growth in the coming months also kept the silver prices buoyant. After the policy meeting the Fed said that it still expects moderate growth in coming months despite recent volatility in financial markets and problems in US credit and housing markets.

TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No. Pressure Point Favours
1. Expectations of healthy economic growth Bulls
2. Firmness in crude oil and copper Bulls
3. Weakness in gold prices Bears


EVENT WATCH:
Covered under gold section.
 
TECHNICALS
TECHNICAL CHART (MCX Silver September)
The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA’s, which is supportive for bulls. MACD is showing slight fall in bearish momentum. Stochastic is supporting bulls in normal region. The prices are likely to see volatile movements with bullish bias.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
MCX-Sept
Buy
> 17686
17790
17860
17615
17450
17594
17737
17948
18122
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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