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Agri Commentary
Jan 31 2007 9:44AM
31st Jan 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot market prices of sugar continue to decline in the majority of markets like Delhi, Muzaffarnagar and Kolkata on weak physical demand and no one is keen to stock. In Maharashtra, despite lower recovery levels, caused due to unfavorable climatic condition, mills are likely to end up producing over 70 lakh tonnes of sugar during the current 2006-07 season. Further, the European Commission proposed to cut the sugar production quotas for the MY2007-08 by 12 percent to prevent a significant surplus in the European Union (EU).
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Improved supply from mills Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1565-1600 1575-1610
-10
Sugar S
Delhi
1550-1585 1560-1595
-10
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1480-1515 1490-1525
-10
 
TECHNICALS
NCDEX February charts show continued sideways trade in a narrow range. Prices closed below the 9 days EMA and the 18 days EMA, indicating that there is a bearish bias within the trading band of Rs.1580-1600. Range bound movement is likely to continue until there is either a breakout above 1600 levels or until prices fail to hold at the Rs.1580 support. In the meantime, it is advisable to either stay away or sell on rallies.
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1590
1586
1580
1595
1570
1576
1585
1600
1608






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices continue to fall on stockist selling due to increased arrivals in producing belts. Lower wheat products demand due to higher prices kept roller flour millers away as buyers. Atta prices also declined by Rs.15 per qtl on lower demand. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills decreased to Rs.1020/qtl on selling pressure from stockists following increased supplies. Arrivals remained steady at higher levels at 10,000-12,000 bags. Reduced offtake from roller flourmills also had its effect on the trading sentiments. Significant volume of wheat has started arriving in market yards of Gujarat. In Rajkot, the fresh arrivals reported at 2,500-3,000 bags per day and price declined to Rs.1040-1050. Higher day temperatures are adding to concern among experts on wheat yields. During the heading and flowering stages, excessively high or low temperatures and drought are harmful to wheat.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Poor demand all over India amidst higher arrivals Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1020
1020-1030
-10
Mill quality
Khanna
1050-1055
1045-1050
+5
Mill quality
Indore
1070-1075
1090-1095
-20
Mill quality
Kanpur
1030-1035
1035-1040
-5
 
TECHNICALS
Prices closed much below 9-day and 18-day EMA indicating weak trend. Stochastic are in oversold region and rising. MACD is in negative territory and moving downwards, indicating further weakness at medium term. Volume as well as Open Interest has decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening.
 
WEATHER
The temperature conditions at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
<1014
1004
1000
1020
993
1000
1010.4
1020
1026





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
As per market sources, major global importers are diverting their demand to Pakistan as the guar gum is offered at lower prices at around Rs. 4500 per qtl by them, as against India’s Rs. 4950 per qtl. However, in view of depleting stock of guar gum in Pakistan, India is likely to witness export demand in the near future. Arrivals increased slightly from 1100 to 1200 bags in Bikaner and 100 to 200 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals remain steady at about 15000-16000 bags all over India. Slight demand from millers observed during day’s trade, while Stockists activity remained silent in the market.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
30.01.07
29.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1860
1860
-
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1970
1970
-
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4992
4992
-
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern exhibits indecisive market sentiment. Stochastic is in normal region and moving upwards. MACD is in negative region and moving slightly upwards, indicating firm tone for medium term. Closing price is in-between 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bullish following a steady to weak opening. However, there is a possibility of some early downwards movement.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Buy
>1990
2015
2025
1975
1970
1978
1999
2025
2034
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Buy
>4925
4975
5000
4895
4868
4900
4945
5000
5062
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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