Jan 31 2007 9:44AM
31st Jan 2007 Agri Report
| SUGAR | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Spot market prices of sugar continue to decline in the majority of markets like Delhi, Muzaffarnagar and Kolkata on weak physical demand and no one is keen to stock. In Maharashtra, despite lower recovery levels, caused due to unfavorable climatic condition, mills are likely to end up producing over 70 lakh tonnes of sugar during the current 2006-07 season. Further, the European Commission proposed to cut the sugar production quotas for the MY2007-08 by 12 percent to prevent a significant surplus in the European Union (EU). | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Bumper production expected | Bears | | 2. | Weak physical demand | Bears | | 3. | Improved supply from mills | Bears | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Centre | 30.01.07 | 29.01.07 | Change | | Sugar M | Delhi | 1565-1600 | 1575-1610 | -10 | | Sugar S | Delhi | 1550-1585 | 1560-1595 | -10 | | Mill Delivery | Delhi | 1480-1515 | 1490-1525 | -10 | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | NCDEX February charts show continued sideways trade in a narrow range. Prices closed below the 9 days EMA and the 18 days EMA, indicating that there is a bearish bias within the trading band of Rs.1580-1600. Range bound movement is likely to continue until there is either a breakout above 1600 levels or until prices fail to hold at the Rs.1580 support. In the meantime, it is advisable to either stay away or sell on rallies. | | | | WEATHER | | Weather is not a factor at the moment. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Feb | Sell | >1590 | 1586 | 1580 | 1595 | 1570 | 1576 | 1585 | 1600 | 1608 | |
| | | WHEAT | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | Wheat prices continue to fall on stockist selling due to increased arrivals in producing belts. Lower wheat products demand due to higher prices kept roller flour millers away as buyers. Atta prices also declined by Rs.15 per qtl on lower demand. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills decreased to Rs.1020/qtl on selling pressure from stockists following increased supplies. Arrivals remained steady at higher levels at 10,000-12,000 bags. Reduced offtake from roller flourmills also had its effect on the trading sentiments. Significant volume of wheat has started arriving in market yards of Gujarat. In Rajkot, the fresh arrivals reported at 2,500-3,000 bags per day and price declined to Rs.1040-1050. Higher day temperatures are adding to concern among experts on wheat yields. During the heading and flowering stages, excessively high or low temperatures and drought are harmful to wheat. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Depleting stocks amidst mild demand | Bulls | | 2. | Poor demand all over India amidst higher arrivals | Bears | | 3. | Poor demand for wheat products | Bears | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Centre | 30.01.07 | 29.01.07 | Change | | Mill quality | Delhi | 1020 | 1020-1030 | -10 | | Mill quality | Khanna | 1050-1055 | 1045-1050 | +5 | | Mill quality | Indore | 1070-1075 | 1090-1095 | -20 | | Mill quality | Kanpur | 1030-1035 | 1035-1040 | -5 | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Prices closed much below 9-day and 18-day EMA indicating weak trend. Stochastic are in oversold region and rising. MACD is in negative territory and moving downwards, indicating further weakness at medium term. Volume as well as Open Interest has decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening. | | | | WEATHER | | The temperature conditions at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Feb | Sell | <1014 | 1004 | 1000 | 1020 | 993 | 1000 | 1010.4 | 1020 | 1026 | |
| | | GUAR COMPLEX | | FUNDAMENTALS | | | As per market sources, major global importers are diverting their demand to Pakistan as the guar gum is offered at lower prices at around Rs. 4500 per qtl by them, as against India’s Rs. 4950 per qtl. However, in view of depleting stock of guar gum in Pakistan, India is likely to witness export demand in the near future. Arrivals increased slightly from 1100 to 1200 bags in Bikaner and 100 to 200 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals remain steady at about 15000-16000 bags all over India. Slight demand from millers observed during day’s trade, while Stockists activity remained silent in the market. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Higher production this year | Bears | | 2. | Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels | Bulls | | |
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
| | Grade | Centre | 30.01.07 | 29.01.07 | Change | | Guar Seed | Bikaner | 1860 | 1860 | - | | Guar Seed | Jodhpur | 1970 | 1970 | - | | Guar Gum | Jodhpur | 4992 | 4992 | - | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Candlestick chart pattern exhibits indecisive market sentiment. Stochastic is in normal region and moving upwards. MACD is in negative region and moving slightly upwards, indicating firm tone for medium term. Closing price is in-between 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bullish following a steady to weak opening. However, there is a possibility of some early downwards movement. | | | | WEATHER | | Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar. | Buy | >1990 | 2015 | 2025 | 1975 | 1970 | 1978 | 1999 | 2025 | 2034 | | NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar. | Buy | >4925 | 4975 | 5000 | 4895 | 4868 | 4900 | 4945 | 5000 | 5062 | | | | | DISCLAIMER This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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