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Jan 29 2007 10:17AM
29th Jan 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur remained closed. Market sentiments have turned in favour of the bears recently as fresh crop arrivals started getting momentum at present. Arrivals are likely to pick up further in the coming month. Talks of lower Chinese crop and prospective export demand have to some extent helped to check the downtrend. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-December 2006. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent during the same period. Acreage under chilli this year is estimated to have doubled. Prices are likely to remain bearish in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops
Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Some fresh crop arrivals in the market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
Closed
5600-6200
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
Closed
6200-6800
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to weak opening and initial downtrend. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased as compared to previous settlement. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic and MACD are indicating possibility of a downward technical correction. Red chillies futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
4400
4325
4300
4450
4235
4290
4375
4445
4500
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets remained bullish. It was quoted higher by Rs. 200 per quintal amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. Traders reported improvement in domestic demand. Overseas enquiries are also reported after a while and traders are optimistic of prospective export demand. India has exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006. With global pepper production estimated to decline by 15-20 per cent (IPC estimates) and 3.46 per cent growth in consumption, prices are likely to head skywards in the global market in near future. Domestic scenario is likely to match global trend given the estimated decline in the production this year.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
Lack of buying support in the physical market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12100
11900
+200
Ungarbled
Kochi
11500
11300
+200
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving upwards in the overbought region, hinting further uptrend. MACD is moving slightly upwards in the positive territory. Prices closed well above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-term. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased as compared to previous settlement. Black pepper futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some early downward movements.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
BUY
12250-12275
12400
12450
12150
11750
12020
12329
12765
13050
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets witnessed some sluggish trend at the weekend. Prices were quoted in a lower range amidst higher arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market, though the quantity of the same is still negligible. Production of jeera is expected at the lower side. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up during the mid of next month onwards that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-Dec 2006. Jeera prices are expected to remain bullish in the near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quantity terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Comfortable stock position in market
Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals in small quantity
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1725-1775
1750-1800
-25
Ganesh
Unjha
1775-1825
1800-1850
-25
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1875-2000
1900-2025
-25
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in the normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is moving indecisively in the positive territory. Prices closed above 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting firm prices in short-tern. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some early downward movements.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
9225-9250
9300
9325
9175
9105
9180
9286.1
9400
9480
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric witnessed lacklustre trade as most of the markets remained closed. Prices were quoted unchanged in Nizamabad amidst steady arrivals as well as offtake. Arrivals have started from the fresh harvest, though the quality of the same is reported to be inferior one with higher moisture contents and quantity is also not enough to make any significant impact on prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to gain pace in the coming days that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric markets are likely to remain bearish on a better crop harvest outlook.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals reported in Nizamabad
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
27.01.07
25.01.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
1925-1950
Closed
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
1925-1950
Closed
-
Finger
Erode
Closed
2100-2200
-
Gattha
Erode
Closed
2000-2100
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates weak opening and initial downtrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region, indicating further downtrend. MACD is also moving downwards in the positive territory. Prices closed below the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume as well as open interest has increased. Turmeric futures are likely to trade downwards following a weak opening with possibility of some upward movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Sell
2015-2025
1990
1975
2050
1945
1970
2025
2055
2085
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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