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Jan 22 2007 10:34AM
22nd Jan 2007 Oil Seeds Report
REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS
Due to the weekend, some acceleration in trades activities imparted a measure of bullishness to refined soy oil across domestic markets. Firm CBOT on strong USDA export data and escalation in CIF prices contributed to firmness. Some markets witnessed improved demand for upcoming marriage season while Delhi market remained range bound on steady supply/demand. CIF prices quoted at $ 694/tonne for February shipment on Saturday. The NCDEX Soy oil February contract finished Rs 3 higher at Rs. 467/10kg compared to yesterday’s closing.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bullish USDA Weekly export sales data and CBOT
Bulls
2.
Declining bean arrivals
Bulls
3.
Abrupt increase in crude soy oil CIF prices
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
20.01.07
19.01.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
453
458
-5
Refined
Indore
437
435
+2
Refined
Kota
441
443
-2
Refined
Rajkot
461
455
+6
TECHNICALS
Short hollow candlestick with upper shadow is indicating bullish sentiments. Prices remain below both the 9-day and 18-day EMAs indicating that the market is still in a downtrend. Stochastic made bearish crossover in neutral region. MACD is rising in negative territory, which shows some medium term strength. Volume increased and open interest declined.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather in major growing areas would facilitate bean arrivals in coming days.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
467
469
470
465
460
463
467
473
476
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS
Holiday in Maharashtra mandies on Saturday resulted in lack of arrivals. In MP, arrivals improved by 30-40 thousand bags with crushers aggressively buying seeds. in Rajasthan, bean arrivals declined by 6-7 thousand bags supporting bullishness in prices. Mixed overnight CBOT and bullish USDA exports data reflected in the physical markets. After recent surge in FAS/FOB meal trades, market was quiet. The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 1434.65/qtl, Rs 0.85 lower than the previous closing level.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Sudden decline in daily arrivals
Bulls
2.
Crushing demand from processors
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
20.01.07
19.01.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1430-1450
1430-1450
0
Indore
Mandi
1370-1410
1350-1385
+20
Maharashtra
Plant
1470-1475
1400-1430
+70
Maharashtra
Mandi
1400-1420
1330-1370
+70
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are giving mixed signals. The prices closed above 9-days and 18-days EMA, which suggests firmness is intact. MACD is running upward in positive zone, which indicate increase in bullish momentum. However, long upper shadow of candlestick depicts tentativeness at higher levels. Stochastics however are negative in neutral region.
WEATHER
Weather is reported to be clear to facilitate arrivals.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
1431
1441
1446
1425
1420
1427
1434.65
1451
1460
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS
Today, NAFED kept seed rates unchanged across spot markets and in Kota it stood at Rs 1690 per qtl, whereas rates in Jaipur it remained at Rs 1735 per qtl [For seeds stock during 2005-06]. Arrivals reportedly improved in Rajasthan region by 2-3,000 bags inducing bearishness. Following NAFED’s recent announcement to further unload around 3 lakh tonnes of mustard seeds discouraged stockists to hold back stocks, adding to bearish sentiments. The NCDEX February contract opened at Rs 372.5 per 20 Kg against previous closing of Rs 371.15/20Kg. Choppy trading and sporadic buying featured the day’s trading, with February contract closing at Rs 372.9/20 Kg.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Arrivals improved in Rajasthan
Bears
2.
Reports of Toria harvest
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
20.01.07
19.01.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1840-1845
1855
-15
Alwar
Conditioned
1760-1765
1750-1760
-10
Delhi
Conditioned
1905
1920
-15
TECHNICALS
Mustard charts are showing continued weakness. The prices closed below 9-days and 18-days EMA, which suggests downtrend is intact. MACD is rising slowly in negative zone which indicate continued fall in bearish momentum. Stochastics however are negative in neutral region.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over western India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from 24th onwards.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
375
371
370
377
368
370
372.9
375
377
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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