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Feb 5 2007 10:56AM
5th Feb 2007 Spices Report
RED CHILLIES
FUNDAMENTALS
Red chillies market in Guntur remained closed. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to gain momentum during the later half of the month and consequently adding to the bearishness. Talks of prospective export demand have supported the market sentiments. Chilli export from the country has increased by 44 percent to Rs. 440 crore during April-Dec 2006 owing to higher prices prevailing at that time. However, in quantity terms it has declined by 3 percent. With a bumper harvest outlook, prices are likely to remain moderately bearish in near future.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Export up 44% during Apr-Dec 2006
Bulls
2.
Talks of lower Chinese crops
Bulls
3.
Good crop expected on higher acreage
Bears
4.
Fresh crop arrivals gaining momentum
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
LCA 334 (loose)
Guntur
Closed
5500-6500
-
LCA 334
(Bilty)
Guntur
Closed
6100-7000
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady opening and initial downtrend. Volume as well as open interest has declined. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting short-term firmness in prices. Stochastic is moving downwards in the normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is moving flat in the positive territory. Red chillies futures are likely to trade downwards following a steady to weak opening with possibility of some upward movements early in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the chilli growing regions. Weather conditions are favourable for the crop at present.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
SELL
4525-4550
4475
4450
4600
4325
4410
4499
4605
4685
BLACK PEPPER
FUNDAMENTALS
Black pepper markets remained steady at the weekend. It was quoted unchanged in Kochi amidst no arrivals as well as offtake. According to a recent notification by the Spices Board of India regarding the WTO Compatible subsidy on export of pepper/pepper products, it has already received applications for subsidy on pepper exports for a quantity of 20000 MT which is the upper limit upto which pepper exporters are eligible for the freight subsidy. Therefore, no more applications in this regard from the exporters will be accepted. Notably, India has already exported pepper worth Rs. 203 crore during April-December 2006 achieving the target of set quantity as well.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Low stocks with competitors; lower global production
Bulls
2.
IPC estimates Vietnamese crop lower and expects only by March
Bulls
3.
Overseas enquiries; prospective export demand
Bulls
4.
No further freight subsidy for pepper export
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Garbled
Kochi
12400
12400
-
Ungarbled
Kochi
11800
11800
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in the normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is also moving downwards in the positive territory. Prices closed above the 9-day as well as 18-day EMA. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Black pepper futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady opening with possibility of some late downward movements.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over the pepper-growing regions. Present weather conditions are favourable for the pepper crop at this time
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
BUY
12800
12950
13000
12700
12320
12565
12870
13385
13600
JEERA (CUMIN)
FUNDAMENTALS
Jeera markets maintained its earlier position during Saturday’s trade. It was quoted on an average steady in Unjha amidst slightly lower arrivals. Fresh crop arrivals are increasing in the market and consequently pressurising the market sentiments. Fresh crop arrivals are likely to pick up further during the next couple of weeks that would eventually help to determine the actual size of the crop, estimations of which varies widely at present. Meanwhile, jeera exports have increased by 199 percent to 22000 tonnes and by 194 percent to Rs. 166 crore during Apr-December 2006. Domestic jeera prices are likely to recover back from its recent decline.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Likely lower production in
Gujarat
Bulls
2.
Cumin export has increased by 199 percent in quality terms during April-Dec 2006
Bulls
3.
Moderate stock position in market
Bears
4.
Crop arrivlas increasing in market
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
FAQ New
Unjha
1700-1750
1700-1750
-
Ganesh
Unjha
1750-1800
1750-1800
-
Machine-cleaned
Unjha
1850-1870
1850-1870
-
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern is indicating steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic is moving downwards in normal region, hinting further downtrend. MACD is moving downwards in the negative territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed below 9-day as well as 18-day EMA, hinting weak prices in short-tern. Volume as well as open interest has declined as compared to previous close. Jeera futures are likely to trade upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of some downward movements later in the session.
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather is likely over the jeera producing region. Climate is suitable for the crop at this stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Jan
BUY
9200-9225
9275
9300
9150
9060
9135
9246.1
9380
9445
TURMERIC
FUNDAMENTALS
Turmeric markets remained steady. It was quoted unchanged in Nizamabad amidst slightly lower arrivals. Erode markets remained closed. Fresh crop arrivals are coming in the markets with mixed quality, wherein the inferior ones with higher moisture contents are fetching lower prices. Fresh crop arrivals are expected to get momentum in the coming couple of weeks that would further pressurise the prices. Turmeric markets are likely to remain moderately bearish on a better crop harvest outlook for the season.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher crop harvest likely in this season
Bears
2.
Fresh crop arrivals in the markets
Bears
3.
Moderate demand from North India
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
03.02.07
02.02.07
Change
Finger
Nizamabad
2000
2000
-
Gattha
Nizamabad
1900
1900
-
Finger
Erode
Closed
2050-2150
-
Gattha
Erode
Closed
2000-2100
-
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks pattern indicates steady to firm opening and initial uptrend. Stochastic are moving downwards in the normal region. MACD is moving downwards in the positive territory, supporting the weakness. Prices closed above the 18-day EMA. Volume has declined, while open interest has increased. Turmeric futures are likely to trade moderately upwards following a steady to firm opening with possibility of downwards movement later in the session.
WEATHER
Isolated rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu. Mainly dry weather over rest of the region. Prevailing weather conditions are favourable for the crop at this time.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
BUY
2030
2045
2050
2020
1998
2015
2034
2055
2072
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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