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Agri Commentary
Feb 24 2007 9:47AM
24th Feb 2007 Agri Report
SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS
Persistent supply from mills and lack of buying support further depressed spot market prices of sugar in the majority of market like Muzaffarnagar, Delhi and Kolkata. Meanwhile, sugar industry in Maharashtra has requested the Union Govt. to provide incentives for enabling them to export 7.5 lakh tonnes at a time when the global prices are ruling at rock bottom. It has called for reimbursement of expenses on internal transport (13 paise/qtl per km), ocean freight at Rs 350 per tonne and marketing & handling expenditure at Rs 500 per tonne. The prices are likely to remain weak in coming days as the supply is likely to increase further with the approaching month end because of the pressure on the sugar mills to offload their free sale quota.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected
Bears
2.
Release of 13 lakh tonnes of free sale quota for Feb’07
Bears
3.
Weak physical demand
Bears
4.
Increased supply from mills
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
23.02.07
22.02.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1445-1490
1475-1505
-15
Sugar S
Delhi
1430-1475
1460-1490
-15
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1360-1405
1390-1420
-15
TECHNICALS
Charts show some buying at lower levels. The Stochastic and RSI are rising in oversold region. MACD is in negative region and edging lower, indicating medium term weakness. Prices remain well below the 9-day and 18-day EMA, indicating continued weakness. Market is expected to trade downwards following a steady to slightly weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement.
WEATHER
Weather is not a significant factor at the moment.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-April
Sell
< 1445
1435
1433
1450
1410
1415
1440
1465
1474
WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS
Wheat prices remained weak in majority of wheat wholesale markets. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills declined by Rs.10/qtl to Rs.1050/qtl. The arrivals remained around 4,000-5,000 bags. The wheat prices in Rajkot mandis declined to Rs.905-910/qtl on the back of fresh arrivals of 6,000-7,000 bags. The government has planned to release 365,000 tonnes of wheat at 986.06 rupees per 100 kg to states for sale in open markets in February and March to curb the prices. This no doubt will add bearish tone in near future. The prices of wheat products remained firm and the demand is likely to increase because of coming holi festivals. With new crop prospects brightening, arrivals in the coming days are expected to increase.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Good product demand
Bulls
2.
Wheat acreage up by over 17.9 lakh hectare in the current rabi season.
Bears
3.
Govt directs FCI to sell wheat at Rs.986.06/qtl plus reasonable handling charges to consumers through states.
Bears
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
23.02.07
22.02.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1050
1055-1060
-10
Mill quality
Khanna
1080-1085
1085-1090
-5
Mill quality
Indore
945-951
945-950
+1
Mill quality
Kanpur
1060-1065
1065-1070
-5
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show bearish sentiments with lower open interest and higher volumes. The prices closed below 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in oversold region and moving downwards. MACD is in positive region and running down. Wheat is likely to trade lower following a steady to weak opening. Prices might test supports at 940 levels below which, prices might fall to the 930 levels.
WEATHER
Present weather conditions are favourable for healthy growth of wheat that is at jointing to booting stage.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Mar
Sell
< 950
941
937
955
930
936
947
957
962
GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS
Guar spot market witnessed firm sentiment during Friday’s trade. The prices of both guar seed and guar gum were quoted on the higher side in majority of market, amidst improved demand from exporters and millers against steady arrivals. According to market sources, overseas demand for guar gum from UK and China has improved slightly and exporters were active in meeting the demand. Consequently millers too remained active in the market. Arrivals stood steady at 500 hundred bags in Bikaner and 150 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals reportedly stood steady at 10000-11000 bags during the day. The spot market prices are expected to remain steady to slightly firm in coming days on gradually increasing export demand.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year
Bears
2.
Higher stock level in the market
Bears
3.
Farmers holding back stocks;
Bulls
4.
Some demand from millers, exporters
Bulls
SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
23.02.07
22.02.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1770
1760
+10
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1900
1875
+25
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4630
4600
+30
TECHNICALS
Candlestick chart pattern exhibits weak market. Stochastic is in normal region and moving upwards. MACD is in negative region and moving upwards. Closing price is below both the 9 days and 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade downwards initially following a steady to weak opening and upward movement thereafter.
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Sell
<1870
1855
1845
1878
1830
1845
1875
1900
1912
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Sell
<4560
4530
4610
4575
4450
4490
4572
4670
4740
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
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