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Jan 24 2007 10:54AM
24th Jan 2007 Oil Seeds Report

REFINED SOY OIL
FUNDAMENTALS  
Today, there has been no significant change for refined soy oil and prices for refined soy oil remained mixed. BMD and overnight CBOT also were weak supporting bearish impact. Crushing remained low amidst poor crushing margin. While Government is in favor of reduction in custom duty on Vegetable oil imports to curb rise in prices, trade and Industry is believed to be not in favor of same. CIF crude soy oil prices improved marginally and remained at $695/tonne against $694/tonne for February shipment on Tuesday. Soy oil futures at NCDEX finished up Rs 0.8 at Rs. 464.25/10kg compared to previous closing.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bearish CBOT and BMD Bears
2.
Sluggish demand Bears
3.
Sluggish demand Bulls
4.
Declined beans arrivals Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Center
23.01.07
22.01.07
Change
Refined
Mumbai
453
453
0
Refined
Indore
435
434
+1
Refined
Kota
463
465
-2
Refined
Rajkot
455
455
0
 
TECHNICALS
Hollow candlestick with both lower and upper shadow indicated bullish sentiments. Buyers dominated during the trade-session. Prices kept below 9 days EMA and 18 days EMA indicating sluggishness in the market. Stochastic has moved into oversold region. MACD has fallen into negative territory. Both volume and open interest declined.
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather in major growing areas would facilitate bean arrivals in coming days.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
465
463
--
467
456
459
464.25
471
474
SOYABEANS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Soybean arrivals declined domestically with steady physical demand, steady soymeal trend and lack of strong fundamentals have mixed reaction across spot markets. Arrivals sharply declined in the Indore region where it remained at 50,000 bags against yesterday’s 90,000-100,000 bags. Crushing margins for soymeal at processors end have declined marginally due to higher cost of beans. Solvent extraction plants limited their regular offtake of beans for processing and with normal refining of crude soy oil to meet regular demand. The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 1431.5/qtl, Rs 6.8 above the previous closing level.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Declining soybean arrivals Bulls
2.
Sluggish demand Bears
3.
Farmers holding beans are looking for better prices to unload in market Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Centers
Market
23.01.07
22.01.07
Change
Indore
Plant
1425-1440
1420-1440
+5
Indore
Mandi
1370-1390
1350-1400
+20
Maharashtra
Plant
1460-1470
1470-1475
-10
Maharashtra
Mandi
1420-1440
1430-1450
-10
 
TECHNICALS
Soybean charts are giving mixed signals. The prices closed above 9-days and 18-days EMA, which indicate firmness is intact. MACD is running downward in positive zone, which hints for decrease in bullish momentum. Stochastics however are negative in neutral region. The prices may remain on the positive side.
 
WEATHER
Weather is reported to be clear to facilitate arrivals.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
< 1435
1420
1412
1445
1405
1416
1431.5
1445
1452
MUSTARD SEEDS
FUNDAMENTALS  
Stockists continued offtake of seeds at prevailing prices in anticipation of further increase in demand for edible oil to meet marriage season and winter demand. NAFED has revised lower the mustard seed rates [stocked during 2005-06] to Rs 1700 per qtl against 1690/qtl for Kota, however rates quoted for Jaipur Centre stood at Rs 1745 per qtl against previous 1735 per qtl. As per trade sources millers have piled up sufficient stocks and can continue crushing till new crop arrivals. The NCDEX February contract closed at Rs 1431.5/qtl, Rs 6.8 above the previous closing level.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Overall arrivals increased Bears
2.
Anticipation for mustard harvest by first weekend Bulls
3.
Nafed revised mustard seeds prices Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Markets
Grade
23.01.07
22.01.07
Change
Jaipur
Conditioned
1840-1845
1835
+5
Alwar
Conditioned
1750-1760
1750-1760
0
Delhi
Conditioned
1910
1910
0
 
TECHNICALS
Mustard is trading sideways these days. Charts are showing continued weakness in the market. The prices closed below 9-days and 18-days EMA, which suggests downtrend is intact. MACD is rising slowly in negative zone, which indicate continued fall in bearish momentum. Stochastics however are on the verge of giving bullish signal in neutral region. The prices are likely to show volatility with bearish bias
 
WEATHER
Mainly dry weather over western India. A fresh western disturbance is expected to affect northwest India in coming days.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
374
371
369
376
468
370
373
375
377
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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