Jan 30 2007 9:23AM
30th Jan 2007 Bullion Report
| GOLD | | FUNDAMENTALS | | Gold came under pressured combination of factors led by strong dollar, weak oil prices and uncertainty ahead of a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates later this week. In London, spot gold was offered $2.60 lower at $645.60 per troy ounce. Conditions in global financial markets look potentially "unstable," suggesting investors need to prepare for a "re-pricing" of some assets, believes Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Euro-dollar was trapped in a trading range and continues to be in a downtrend from the early December high. Comex gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7,463,524 ounces. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Gold pressured by weak oil, firm dollar and uncertainty over US interest rate decision. | Bears | | 2. | Jean-Claude Trichet: global financial markets look potentially "unstable”. | Bears | | 3. | Dollar on a recovery path. | Bulls | | 4. | Comex warehouse stocks unchanged. | Bears | | |
EVENT WATCH: (Monday)
| | National Australia Bank Dec business survey, Lihir Gold Q2 production report, Oil Search Q4 production report | | Japan Dec industrial output, unemployment rate, household spending | | EU finance ministers meeting, Brussels | | US FOMC begins 2-day meeting | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Gold seems consolidating after recent upward rally. The prices closed well above EMAs, which suggests bullish trend is intact. MACD has entered in positive territory, which is a positive sign. However, overbought levels of stochastic warrants some caution on the part of bulls. Prices are likely to see some consolidation. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | MCX-Feb | Sell | < 9230 | 9175 | 9150 | 9260 | 9120 | 9150 | 9207 | 9262 | 9310 | |
| | | SILVER | | FUNDAMENTALS | | Silver followed the trend in precious metal complex. The metal continued to come under pressure after peaking early last week. In London spot market silver was offered at $13.30 per troy ounce, down 13 cents. Copper futures eased in New York and on LME due to the near static inventory levels. Comex warehouse stock fell 519,845 ounces to 114,238,099 ounces. | TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears | | No. | Pressure Point | Favours | | 1. | Silver continues to feel selling pressure. | Bears | | 2. | Static inventory level softens copper futures. | Bears | | 3. | Comex warehouse stocks down 519,845 ounces. | Bulls | | |
EVENT WATCH:
| | Events covered under gold section | | | | | | TECHNICALS | | | Silver is showing weakness at higher levels, however close above EMAs shows the uptrend is intact. Stochastic have made bearish crossover in overbought levels. MACD is continuing its rising trend in negative territory, which indicates decreasing bearish momentum. The prices are likely to see some consolidation. | | | | | TRADE RECOMMENDATION | | | | Contract | Call | Entry | T1 | T2 | SL | S2 | S1 | PCP | R1 | R2 | | MCX-Mar | Sell | < 19750 | 19500 | -- | 19865 | 19310 | 19473 | 19621 | 19885 | 20000 | | | | | | DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).
| Reliance Disclaimer
|
|