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Agri Commentary
Jan 30 2007 9:43AM
30th Jan 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Spot market prices of sugar declined in the majority of markets like Delhi, Muzaffarnagar and Kolkata on continued sluggish demand and no one is keen to stocking due to expectations of higher production this season. Further, sweet tidings for sugar factories in Karnataka, as the centre has permitted the state to produce 3.3 crore liters of ethanol to supply it to oil companies. The govt. permitted 5% ethanol blending in India, which may create a demand for 550 million liters for the current year and the centre is planning to blend 10% ethanol in phase –2 which will generate a demand of 1200 million liters. Sugar prices in the country are likely to dip with a projected production of 23-24 million tonne and with a carryover stock of 4 million tonne. Despite good sugar output, the diversion of cane to ethanol production in India and similarly with export demand for sugar reviving, support to prices is expected in the longer term.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears
3.
Improved supply from mills Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
29.01.07
27.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1575-1610 1575-1625
-15
Sugar S
Delhi
1560-1595 1560-1610
-15
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1490-1525 1490-1540
-15
 
TECHNICALS
Sugar has entered a period of sideways trading in a very narrow band. Until a break-out occurs in either direction, trade is likely to remain lacklustre. Any rally is likely to encounter heavy selling due to abundant supply in the market. The 1600 level appears to be a key resistance and short term buying might only be seen above the 1600 level. Until then the best strategy appears to be to sell on rallies.
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1592
1584
1580
1597
1570
1576
1588
1600
1608






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices declined sharply in majority of domestic markets on higher arrivals amidst poor demand at higher price levels. The lower wheat products demand due to higher prices restricted roller flour millers demand from open market. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills decreased sharply by Rs.40-50 at Rs.1020-1030/qtl. Arrivals remained steady at higher levels at 10,000-12,000 bags from 4000-5000 bags during Thursday. The arrivals are reported from Punjab, Haryana and U.P. as stockists are interested in liquidating their stocks on easy outlook and likely early arrivals of wheat in spot markets. Fresh arrivals of wheat are reported from Gujarat mandis. In Rajkot, the fresh arrivals reported at 2,500-3,000 bags per day and price declined by Rs.40-45 further to Rs.1050-1060. As wheat prices in Gujarat ease, demand from Maharashtra for Gujarat wheat is expected. Futures market followed spot sentiments.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Poor demand all over India amidst higher arrivals Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products Bears
4. Higher acreage (281.135 L.ha. v/s 263.626L.ha.) on Jan 19, year-on-year Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
29.01.07
27.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1020-1030
1060-1070
-40
Mill quality
Khanna
1045-1050
1080-1085
-35
Mill quality
Indore
1090-1095
1105-1110
-15
Mill quality
Kanpur
1035-1040
1050-1055
-15
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick shows seller dominance. Prices closed much below 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in oversold region and moving downwards. MACD is in negative territory and moving downwards, indicating further weakness in medium term. Volume has increased whereas Open Interest has decreased. Wheat is likely to trade bearish following a steady to weak opening.
 
WEATHER
Rains as of now are deficient. However if weather is cooler, still wheat crop prospects will not be affected seriously.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
<1004
996
992
1009
984
993
1002.2
1008
1012





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
Guar spot market reflected firm sentiments during Monday’s trade when spot prices of guar seed and guar gum remained higher in the majority of markets on slight demand amidst steady arrivals. Arrivals stood at 1100 bags in Bikaner, while declined slightly to 100 from 300 bags in Nokha. Overall arrivals remain steady at 15000-16000 bags a day in all over India. As per market sources some buying activity from Stockists as well as exporters were active during the day’s trade. Moreover, firmness in guar futures market supported trading activities in the spot markets.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
29.01.07
27.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1860
1840
+20
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1970
1950
+20
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4992
4888
+104
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows firm tone with buying support seen at lower levels. Stochastic is in normal region and rising following a bullish crossover. MACD is in negative region and moving upwards. Closing price is in-between the 9 days and the 18 days EMA.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Buy
>1995
2020
2032
1980
1980
1988
2002
2034
2045
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Buy
>4925
4965
5000
4900
4880
4907
4950
5040
5068
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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