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Tuesday, February 13, 2007
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Agri Commentary
Feb 2 2007 9:46AM
2nd Feb 2007 Agri Report

SUGAR
FUNDAMENTALS  
Sugar spot market witnessed steady sentiment during Thursday’s trade on the back of stagnant demand in the major markets of Delhi and Muzaffarnagar, whereas the spot market price in Kolkata eased slightly on weak demand. Market activities remained dull due to delay in monthly release of free sale quota for February month. However, earlier the government has released 41 lakh tonne of free sale quota for the quarter January to March, 2007, in which the free sale quota for the months of February and March is 13 and 15 lakh tons respectively. This quantity is sufficient to meet the routine and festival demand of ‘Holi’.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Bumper production expected Bears
2.
Weak physical demand Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
Sugar M
Delhi
1565-1595 1565-1595
-
Sugar S
Delhi
1550-1580 1550-1580
-
Mill Delivery
Delhi
1480-1510 1480-1510
-
 
TECHNICALS
NCDEX February contract, candlestick chart pattern exhibits bearish sentiment. The MACD, RSI and Stochastic favour the bears. Prices closed below the 9 days EMA and the 18 days EMA. Range bound movement is expected in the market following a steady to weak opening with possibility of slight late upward movement.
 
WEATHER
Weather is not a factor at the moment.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Sell
>1580
1575
1570
1585
1555
1560
1576
1600
1608






WHEAT
FUNDAMENTALS  
Wheat prices remained mixed in the domestic markets on Thursday. At Delhi, Wheat dara for mills was up by Rs.30 per Qtl. at Rs.1040-1050/qtl on decreased arrivals of around 3,000-4000 bags. The lower demand of wheat and wheat products continued pressurizing the market. Fresh wheat crop continue arriving in market yards of Gujarat. Wheat crop in northern India are mostly in tillering stage. Winter rains in this region have raised hopes of higher wheat production. Day temperatures have been higher recently, which so far has not seriously affected crop prospects. However, prolonged high temperature in coming fortnight is not beneficial for crop growth.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Depleting stocks amidst mild demand Bulls
2.
Poor demand all over India amidst fresh arrivals at Gujarat Bears
3.
Poor demand for wheat products Bears


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
Mill quality
Delhi
1040-1050
1010
+40
Mill quality
Khanna
1051-1055
1055-1060
-5
Mill quality
Indore
1050-1055
1060-1065
-10
Mill quality
Kanpur
1015-1020
1020-1025
-10
 
TECHNICALS
Candlesticks show bullish sentiments. Prices closed above 9-day and 18-day EMA. Stochastic is in normal region and rising after a bullish crossover. MACD is in negative territory and moving upwards. Volume as well as Open Interest has increased. Wheat is likely to trade bullish following a firm opening.
 
WEATHER
The temperature at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for yield. Temperatures above 25°c during this period tend to depress grain weight.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Feb
Buy
>1024
1032
1037
1019
1016
1020
1028
1040
1050





GUAR COMPLEX
FUNDAMENTALS  
The guar spot markets continued to witness bearish sentiments. The arrivals at the major physical markets are reported to be steady at around 15000-16000 bags. Arrivals stood steady at 1200 bags in Bikaner, while it increased to 400 bags from 200 bags in Nokha. With a steady arrival, the prices of guar at the physical markets remained on the lower side. Moreover, the weakness in the futures market also weighed on spot market sentiments. Despite a lower price, activity was limited in the physical markets with the sellers not active at lower levels. Traders are expecting a quick recovery in guar prices, as export activity is likely to pick up in coming days.
TUG-OF-WAR: Bulls vs. Bears
No.
Pressure Point
Favours
1.
Higher production this year Bears
2.
Decreasing arrivals at lower price levels Bulls


SPOT MARKET PRICES: (Rs/qtl)
Grade
Centre
01.02.07
31.01.07
Change
Guar Seed
Bikaner
1830
1840
-10
Guar Seed
Jodhpur
1950
1950
-
Guar Gum
Jodhpur
4890
4940
-50
 
TECHNICALS
Candlestick pattern shows weakness. Stochastic is in normal region and falling after a bearish crossover. MACD is in negative region and moving downwards, indicating weak tone for medium term. Closing price is below 9 days and the 18 days EMA. Market is expected to trade bearish following a weak opening.
 
WEATHER
Weather has no impact on Guar as harvesting is complete.
   
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
 
Contract
Call
Entry
T1
T2
SL
S2
S1
PCP
R1
R2
NCDEX-Guar Seed-Mar.
Sell
< 1980
1960
1950
1990
1940
1950
1972
1988
1995
NCDEX-Guar Gum-Mar.
Sell
< 4920
4870
4845
4950
4821
4847
4901
4950
4970
 
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared exclusively for Reliance Commodities by Indian Rural Market Products Pvt Ltd (IRMPL). The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. IRMPL does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. Use of data and information contained in this report is at your own risk. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. IRMPL and its affiliates and/or their officers, directors and employees may have positions in any commodities mentioned in this document (or in any related investment) and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such commodities (or investment).


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